Decision Virginia

It is a playing field that should play naturally to Creigh Deeds. A rural lawyer who was raised on a farm Deeds speaks the language of farmers and understands the struggles they face. Today in front of over 200 professionals from the agriculture and forestry industry, the country Senator spun yarns about neighbors that taught people how to coon hunt and his own experience performing surgery on family livestock.

Perhaps no candidate for statewide office has ever had more life experience when it comes to agriculture, but farming is a bottom line business, and being there only takes you so far.

Bob McDonnell is hopeful that the same fickle attitude that lead the Farm Bureau to endorse him over Creigh Deeds in 2005 in the race for Attorney General will repeat itself in 2009. Today McDonnell acknowledged that he couldn’t possibly compete with his opponent’s life connections to farming. Instead he hope to build the case that he was the candidate for small business and there is no greater small business person in Virginia than the family farmer. It’s an industry that lead to $97 billion in economic activity, last year alone.

The problem for McDonnell is that 2005 is remarkably different than 2009. In 2005, with an economic engine humming, his free enterprise rhetoric played well to an industry looking for lower taxes and less regulation. While the farmers of 2009 are still looking for that type of help, they are also not adverse to the types of assistance that democrats are proposing. Today Deeds talked about government programs that would help to invest in alternative forms of energy that could lead to big pay-days for farmers. Harnessing new forms of crops and utilizing animal waste to create new forms of energy are at this point unproven and would need a nudge from the government. It could lead to an attractive opportunity for family farms struggling to stay afloat.

((Extended clips from the Farm Bureau forum can be found after the jump))

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Ryan Nobles – bio | email

$79 Billion. That is the amount of economic activity generated by agriculture and forestry in Virginia. Today the two candidates for Governor will face the issues confronting those industries in a forum hosted by the Virginia Farm Bureau. Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds will take questions from an audience comprised of members from the Farm Bureau, the Virginia Agribusiness Council, the State Fair of Virginia, the Virginia Forest Products Association and the Virginia Forestry Association.

The question and answer sessions will be held at different times, so this will not be a formal debate. In response to McDonnell’s call for 10 face to face debates, the Deeds campaign counted this forum among the 10 joint appearances that they have agreed to over the course of the campaign. That has not been enough for Republicans who have repeated their calls for Deeds to agree to a more rigorous face to face debate schedule. Regardless of the “debate over debates”, today’s forum is important for both candidates. Not only are Forestry and Agriculture important to the economy of Virginia, the people who work in those fields tend to be very politically active. Farmers and foresters ask tough questions and demand answers, but when they find a candidate to support (and they weave back and forth between republicans and democrats) they will work hard to get that person elected. We will be there today to learn more about the issues important to these two industries and we’ll have more on how the candidates react tonight on NBC12 and here on Decision Virginia. You can read more about the forum after the jump. (It is important to note, that the forum is NOT open to the public, only to members of the associations supporting the event.) Read the rest of this entry »

WDBJ-TV in Roanoke just released a new SurveyUSA poll that is very encouraging for the Republican candidates running statewide in Virginia. According to the results, the GOP holds leads in the race for Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General outside of the margin of error.

Here are the results (Republicans all listed first):

Governor:
Bob McDonnell- 55%
Creigh Deeds- 40%
Undecided- 5%

Lt. Governor:
Bill Bolling- 52%
Jody Wagner- 42%
Undecided- 4%

Attorney General:
Ken Cuccinelli- 53%
Steve Shannon- 42%
Undecided- 6%

The results are difficult to argue with, especially in light of the fact that Democrats had appeared to close a gap that had been there throughout their gubernatorial primary.  It is also bound to get national attention in light of the fact that some polls show President Barack Obama’s approval ratings have dipped below 50% for the first time and new poll in New Jersey shows that, Chris Christie the Republican challenger to John Corzine has taken a 14 point lead in their race.

For their part the GOP is working hard to sell the story that the Democratic brand is fading fast. The President is in Bristol, VA today for a town hall on Health Care and the RNC released a statement today accusing Creigh Deeds of going out of his way to avoid appearing with the President. The Deeds campaign has repeatedly said that they are not going to politicize White House policy events and of course Deeds will hold a major rally with the President next week in McLean.

While these numbers are encouraging for Republicans and show a very small number of undecided voters, there is still a long way to go before election day and chances are many voters are not paying very close attention quite yet.

He has already spent many hours cris-crossing the 73rd district of Virginia, but today University of Richmond Professor Tom Shields officially kicked off his challenge to Republican incumbent John O’Bannon.

Shields is part of a group of serious challengers to Republican House members across the state, as the Democrats attempt to take control of the lower house of the General Assembly. It’s a position they have not been in since reconstruction.

While Shields has attempted to run a relatively upbeat campaign, he has not been afraid to go on the attack of his opponent. Shields has characterized O’Bannon, a neurologist from Henrico, as “out of touch”. He has also taken advantage of a coordinated attack, hatched by the Democratic Party of Virginia, to slap incumbent Republicans that prevented the Commonwealth from taking advantage of stimulus funds connected to unemployment insurance.

Shields struck a tone of independent leadership in his announcement before about 75 supporters at  Tuckahoe Elementary School.  He laid out a vision he claims goes above party labels to improve the economy, education and health care. Not surprisingly, his opponent didn’t agree. O’Bannon said the Shields roll-out was nothing more than a negative attack.

“Usually some time lapses between a candidate’s announcement and the initiating of negative campaigning,” O’Bannon said in a statement today.  “Judging from his comments today, Mr. Shields is content to misrepresent and – in some instances – falsify my record before explaining to voters his own plans.”

And Shields was not afraid to draw differences between his campaign and how he views O’Bannon.  “Time and again, O’Bannon has put his party leaders and the special interests above families in his own district,” said Shields.  “I believe that the 73rd district deserves a new generation of independent leadership, and I look forward to a serious debate about the major issues facing Virginia.”

O’Bannon’s district is as reliably red as any in Virginia. However, the district did vote for Barack Obama last fall, as well as supporting Tim Kaine as well. It looks as though both of these candidates will not go down without a fight. There is a good chance though, that the overall mood of the state could have more to do with who wins in Henrico than the personalities of either of these candidates.

The Shields release and the O’Bannon response can be found after the jump..

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Ryan Nobles – bio | email

Democratic Attorney General candidate Steve Shannon is not giving up on his efforts to connect his Republican opponent Ken Cuccinelli to controversial comments made by a candidate for Delegate in the Northern Neck.

Catherine Crabill has garnered national attention for a fiery speech that she delivered at a Tea Party event, where she told the crowd that they “have a chance to fight this battle at the ballot box, before we have to resort to the bullet box.” The YouTube clip has become a democratic sensation, posted on blogs across the country as evidence of extremism on the Republican side of the aisle.

While many democrats have found ways to denounce Crabill’s comments, only Shannon has used the incident as a cornerstone of his campaign strategy. The Northern Virginia Delegate has repeatedly called on Cuccinelli to condemn the remarks and seems to find a way to remind voters that Crabill and Cuccinelli are both Republicans, running for office in 2009, as much as possible.

Shannon’s effort to draw this connection has moved up a notch when he chose to base his first video advertisement for his campaign on the Crabill comments. The ad at this point is only running on the internet, and campaign officials have not said if they plan to put it on television.

For the most part, Cuccinelli has ignored the repeated attacks by the Shannon campaign, and instead renewed his call for face to face debates.

It is difficult to judge just how big of an impact this viral internet video could have on the campaign in general. Privately, Republican leaders wish that Crabill had been a little more careful with her words, but are reluctant to criticize because of her connection with the Tea Party movement, which at this point is one of the few motivated grass roots political efforts in an off election year.

The situation is even more complicated, because even though Crabill is the nominated candidate, she was by no means anointed by the Republican establishment. She is running in a far flung district against an entrenched democratic opponent and truthfully, the GOP had no one else willing to run.

Is Shannon attempting to create a strong knot with a loose grouping a frayed connections? Is Cuccinelli secretly a supporter of violent government resistance? How much is this debate connecting with the average voter?

Does it have anything to do with being Attorney General?

See the Shannon ad and the latest call for debates by Cuccinelli after the jump..

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First Lady Michelle Obama is expected this afternoon in the sleepy town of Bowling Green, to headline a ribbon cutting ceremony for a small health care practice that was able to expand thanks to the boost from federal Stimulus funds.

As you can tell from the photo above, interest and security is already pretty high. Many people who support and oppose Barack Obama’s health care initiatives are here hoping to catch a glimpse of his wife. Although they are hopeful, it appears that only invited guests will be the only ones who get very close to Mrs. Obama. Those buses you see on the left hand side of the photo are surrounding the perimeter of the facility and are acting like a shield to protect the Obama entourage.

I will keep you updated on her visit throughout the day and we will have a live report tonight on NBC12 news at 5:30 and 6.

After the jump you will find the video from my 6pm live report on the FLOTUS visit to Central Virginia.

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If you don’t want to spend too much time reading or watching back the first debate in the race for Governor of Virginia, allow me the opportunity to sum it up for you as succinctly as I can.

Bob McDonnell loves George W. Bush.

Creigh Deeds loves taxes.

Neither of them have a good plan to fix the transportation problem.

While I might be a bit sarcastic in my tone, those three statements wrap up the essence of this exchange. It certainly wasn’t a game changer, but it does lay the groundwork for the upcoming campaign. It also gives us insight into how these two teams are hoping voters view their opponent.

From my perspective, Bush, Taxes and Transportation were the three most interesting nuggets that emerged from the action. Here is a break down of all three:

Transportation:

The boondoggle that is Northern Virginia’s highway system is now going on its (at least) third run as a major issue in a campaign for Governor. No one can seem to develop some sort of consensus and in Hot Springs, the two candidates spent plenty of time sparring over which one is best able to change the situation.

While McDonnell has presented a plan he thinks will work, Deeds criticized it as filled with old ideas that have never met the muster of the General Assembly and still won’t if and when Bob McDonnell gets there.  He also claims that McDonnell’s plan robs funding from education, just so the Republican can avoid raising taxes.

Meanwhile McDonnell accuses Deeds of offering no substantive plan, in part because the only real idea he has involves raising taxes. McDonnell scored a bit of a point when he put Deeds into a position where he said “nothing is off the table”, allowing McDonnell’s campaign staff to infer that met new taxes were a possibility.  Which leads to topic number two..

((More on Deeds and taxes and McDonnell and Bush, including video after jump.))

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It is the biggest event in the early stages of the campaign for Governor. Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell square off in what is currently the only officially confirmed face to face debate. The debate promises to set the stage for the upcoming three month sprint to election day.

The debate is being held at the far flung resort the Homestead, a close to 3 and half hour drive from Richmond, but in an interesting turn of events you can watch from the comfort of your own home through a live web stream on VirginiaTalks.com, a new venture from Style Weekly. (In fact Bacon’s Rebellion has some interesting insight into how this venture allows this normally isolated tradition to be shared with the rest of the Commonwealth.)

The debate begins at 11am.

We will have a crew in Hot Springs for the event and I will have a complete wrap tonight on NBC12 news at 6 and 11. I will also provide more in depth insight and some clips from the event here on Decision Virginia later this evening.

Much is being discussed today about Doug Wilder’s resistance to jump behind Creigh Deeds campaign for Governor. While Wilder has gone to great lengths in interviews with both Politico and the Washington Post to suggest that he remains unconvinced that Deeds deserves his support, the man who may know him the best isn’t buying it.

Paul Goldman, the eccentric former top aide to Governor Wilder said that his former bosses’ dance is no different than the same endorsement act he has put on in previous races for Governor. He said that while Wilder will hint and flirt with the Republican Bob McDonnell, barring an unforeseen circumstance, he will eventually get behind his fellow democrat.

“Wilder has already telegraphed his final move,” Goldman told me today in a lengthy discussion about the cagey politician.  “The pundits, professors and professionals in Virginia politics are blinded by their own financial/personal/other self-interests to be able to step back and look at Wilder’s dodging and weaving like a doctor looking his own x-rays: that is to say, you need to look at from the pure 100% science, keep your personal stuff out of it.”

Goldman said that by granting a few well placed interviews with high profile outlets, Wilder is able to drop hints and keep himself in the spotlight. A point proven by the media interest in today’s article by Politico and subsequent follow up by the Post. According to Goldman, Wilder can make people believe that he could potentially shock the world and endorse McDonnell, when in reality,  he has no plans to.

“This is not about Bob McDonnell,” said Goldman. “There is simply no way Doug Wilder is going to put himself at odds with the President of the United States.  By raising doubt about Deeds, he can show that he isn’t sold on him as a candidate, but will ultimately have to say that he is supporting him in deference to Barack Obama.”

Goldman said there is no way Wilder will allow Obama to come to Richmond in support of Creigh Deeds and miss an opportunity to stand on stage with the President. (Obama is schedule to come to McLean on Deeds’ behalf at the beginning of August. At this point there are no plans for him to come to Richmond.)

The person of course is a difficult spot is Creigh Deeds. The democratic nominee, who already earned a solid enough of endorsement from  the President of the United States, that Mr. Obama is coming to Virginia on his behalf, can’t seem to even get Doug Wilder on the phone. Yet Deeds,  or those close to him cannot speak ill of the still highly regarded former Governor. Spokesman Jared Leopold told me today that “Creigh is looking forward to sitting down with Governor Wilder. Creigh admires Governor Wilder’s groundbreaking achievements throughout his career,” said Leoplold. “But he recognizes that the Governor is an independent leader and will make up his own mind.

It is a scenario which could make loyal Democrats wonder why their overwhelmingly nominated candidate, needs to bother with the distraction of a man, no longer in office.

Ryan Nobles – bio | email

Doug Wilder is at it again. The unpredictable former Governor of Virginia and Mayor of Richmond told Politico’s Jonathan Martin that he isn’t sure who he plans to back in the 2009 race for his former position. Wilder also said that he couldn’t be convinced to back Creigh Deeds, despite a personal plea from the White House’s Political Director Patrick Gaspard.

According to the Politico article Wilder met with Gaspard for over two hours in Richmond and despite the meeting he appears to be in no hurry to jump into the fray. He even seemed to question Sen. Deeds’ record in this excerpt from the report:

But Wilder, in disclosing the meeting in an interview with POLITICO, made it clear that he remained far from endorsing Deeds and was in no hurry to weigh in on the closely watched race — all the while outlining with his typical brutal candor what he thought some of the party’s challenges were and what was at stake.

On what the former governor called “bread-and-butter issues,” he said of Deeds: “Tell me what the man has done? I haven’t heard it.”

Asked if he thought Deeds may have a problem this fall with African-American voters, Wilder said flatly: “I do.”

He said black voters have no reason at the moment to vote for the nominee and referred to the decision this week of BET co-founder and Democratic donor Sheila Johnson to support GOP nominee Bob McDonnell.

“Many people feel taken for granted and I think that was built into the decision Mrs. Johnson made,” Wilder said.

The former governor could have also been talking about himself.

It is no surprise that Wilder seems unprepared to get behind his fellow Democrat. In past election cycles he has not been afraid to withhold his support until the moment that would bring him the most notoriety. (He waited until a week before election day to endorse Tim Kaine). Wilder caused quite a stir during the democratic primary when he did not endorse anyone, but seemed to be critical of Terry McAuliffe. He also enjoys to flirting with Republicans and has not been shy about his admiration for Republican nominee Bob McDonnell. Wilder does goes to great lengths in the Politico piece to point out that he has never publicly endorsed a Republican.

It is clear from this report, and my own conversations with McDonnell that he is openly courting the first African-American Governor since reconstruction in an effort to draw in moderate and minority voters. This effort is clearly gaining ground as evidence from the support McDonnell received from Shelia Johnson, a prominent African-American businesswoman and the former chair of Kaine’s campaign for Governor.

Meanwhile, this meeting shows just how important the White House views the race for Governor in Virginia. To send someone of Gaspard’s prominence to personally meet with Wilder shows that they want no surprises and are taking nothing for granted. Something Mr. Wilder seems to be well aware of:

“The case that they made is that in Virginia and New Jersey — the two states that are up for election — losing one is bad, but losing both would be devastating.”