Ryan Nobles – bio | email

Now that the winner and losers have been officially decided at the ballot box, it is time to dig a bit deeper and see who will benefit (and lose) the most in Virginia politics.

Losers -

Gov. Tim Kaine - It is hard to believe that just a little more than a year ago, Virginia’s current governor was a whisker away from becoming the nominee for vice president of the United States. It seems that since his close friend President Barack Obama turned to the more experienced Joe Biden, Kaine’s fortunes have gone down hill. He was forced into a job he didn’t want (DNC Chair) and as a result had to constantly deal with questions about where he was having dinner each night. Taking on the job also put him at the center of yesterday’s losses not only in Virginia, but in New Jersey too, a state he has little to nothing to do with. Kaine now is left with a little less than two months to define his legacy in the governor’s mansion. A legacy that, regardless of his legislative and governing accomplishments (Smoking Ban, his stewardship in the wake of the Virginia Tech massacre), will now be defined by one huge political win (Barack Obama) and one enormous political loss (last night). Kaine, however, still enjoys the trust and friendship of the most powerful man in the world and his political destiny may still be ahead of him.

Jeff Frederick (former Republican Party chair) – Yes, there were Republicans who did not come out ahead last night and Frederick is among them. The feisty leader of the conservative wing of the party was on the precipice of causing a huge rift in the Republican party last spring. But within less than a month he became marginalized by the McDonnell machine and reduced to a few errant tweets that eventually no longer became news. In the days leading up to the campaign, Frederick tweeted about a write-in campaign for his former seat in the House of Delegates, and the formation of a separate Conservative party in Virginia. Frederick, who once held a position so powerful that his off-the-cuff comments about Barack Obama garnered national attention, may now only be remembered as the guy who once held one of the few seats in the House of Delegates that switched to the Democratic party in 2009.

Mike Henry (campaign manager for Terry McAuliffe and Steve Shannon) – Perhaps the most respected mind in Virginia politics, Henry had the distinction of presiding over two losses in one campaign season. The expectations may have been too high for a man who had been almost perfect in Virginia politics. He didn’t appear to have enough time to convince Virginia voters that McAuliffe was one of them and by the time he reached the Shannon campaign, the growing tsunami was already overwhelming. Henry is still incredibly well-respected and I am sure he will be back in the very near future (Terry McAuliffe is already considering a run in 2013).

Winners -

Phil Cox (McDonnell campaign manager) – The man at the top of the Bob McDonnell machine withstood criticism about his ties to controversial conservative groups to become the biggest “behind the scenes” player in Virginia politics. This morning Bob McDonnell named him the head of his transition team and, depending on what his goals are, he may end up with a prominent position in the new administration. Cox managed a fickle and unsettled GOP in the spring and became the first Republican campaign manger to effectively integrate the internet and social media into an overall strategy.  He also helped to guide Team McDonnell through the rough waters of the revelation of the candidate’s master’s thesis to cruise to a landslide victory.

Republican Bloggers/Internet Stars - Up until yesterday, it was just a given that Republicans would lose the war online. It may be too early to declare them victorious in 2009, but the GOP’s presence on the internet grew exponentially in this campaign. From offering right-leaning bloggers better seating at the Republican convention than the media, to gathering more Facebook friends and Twitter followers for Bob McDonnell than any other candidate, Republicans did not just hand the internet over to the Democrats. Sites like Bearing Drift have now become important players that candidates and voters can no longer ignore. They may not be the difference between winning and losing, but they are now having an impact, something they could never say before.

Brian Moran (former Democratic candidate for governor) – He watched as one of his one of his two opponents for the Democratic nomination lost in a landslide and the other already floated the idea of running again and hasn’t said a word. Brian Moran is rumored to be in talks to make a play for the Democratic Party’s chairmanship and could be well positioned to be a prominent and vocal opponent to the McDonnell administration. The former leader of the Democratic House Caucus, Moran is accustomed to the back and forth bickering related to the legislative process and could prove to be a go-to guy for reporters looking for the counterpoint to the McDonnell agenda. The question is, does he want that role? Regardless, Moran looks to have options. Options that weren’t available in early June.

I point you this post, from Decision Virginia:

McDonnell pledges to serve his entire term

AP-VA-TopRaces-Glance-Sum,0097
(AP) 11-03-09 20:19,,
Governor

1,392 of 2,516 precincts – 55 percent

x-Robert McDonnell, GOP 594,174 – 62 percent
R. Creigh Deeds, Dem 370,399 – 38 percent

Lieutenant Governor

1,382 of 2,516 precincts – 55 percent

x-Bill Bolling, GOP (i) 570,454 – 60 percent
Jody Wagner, Dem 381,206 – 40 percent

Attorney General

1,378 of 2,516 precincts – 55 percent

x-Ken Cuccinelli, GOP 573,499 – 61 percent
Stephen Shannon, Dem 366,913 – 39 percent

(Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press.  All Rights Reserved.)

AP-NY-11-03-09 2019EST

From the Republican Governors Association…

————–

RGA Congratulates Bob McDonnell

The Republican Governors Association congratulated Bob McDonnell for winning the Virginia governor’s race tonight.

“Bob McDonnell’s victory gives Republicans tremendous momentum heading into 2010,” said RGA Chairman Haley Barbour. “Virginia is an important swing state that had been trending blue for twelve years.”

“Bob McDonnell proves that when Republicans campaign on solutions to the challenges on voters’ minds, we win,” Barbour continued. “His focus on ideas and pocketbook issues will serve as a model for Republicans running next year.”

Virginians last elected a Republican governor in 1997. Since that time, the state has added one million new residents, nearly half of whom reside in Northern Virginia. Between 2006 and 2008, Democrats picked up both U.S. Senate seats and control of the state senate. Their gains culminated in President Obama winning the state in last year’s presidential election – the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Virginia since 1964.

“The RGA knew winning Virginia was essential to the rebuilding of our Party,” RGA Vice Chairman Tim Pawlenty said. “That’s why we invested nearly $5.5 million in this race and made it a top priority.”

The RGA contributed $2 million directly to Bob McDonnell’s campaign last spring, allowing him to air positive television ads during May sweeps. In September, the RGA invested $1.5 million in television ads in all the media markets except Washington, D.C. that highlighted Creigh Deeds bragging about being the biggest spender in Richmond, and his plan to hike taxes. After flipping Deeds’ image by close to twenty points in all markets except D.C., the RGA began executing a $1.8 million ad campaign in October in the Washington, D.C. media market. The Washington Post called the RGA’s ads “devastating.” The RGA also contributed $100,000 for critical get-out-the-vote efforts in the campaign’s final days.

“The pressure was on the Democrats this year to hold onto Virginia, but Americans are wary of their massive lurch to the left,” Pawlenty said. “Bob McDonnell proved that a positive, idea-based, message works, and that voters in a swing state will follow someone who pledges to keep taxes low and keep the free enterprise system intact.”

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) – Republican Bob McDonnell elected governor
of Virginia.

(Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

AP-NY-11-03-09 1957EST

I asked this morning on my twitter page, for voters to tweet me the scene at their polling place. I am going to post people’s responses to get a view of what Election day is like across Virginia.

I voted around 11:15 at Greenfield Elementary in Chesterfield. At first I thought the scene was abnormally busy because the parking lot was packed:

However, once my wife and I got inside the wait was not very long at all. I was voter number 628, Karey was 629.

Here are the responses from your tweets- (I will keep updating throughout the day, the latest tweet at the top):

@_KatelynT I didn’t get to vote today because I have H1N1. I feel like I didn’t get to make a difference in the polls.

@g33kgurrl - The eldest & @g33kguy are home. They were voters # 1377 and 1376

@rBrianForrester Voting center empty, no lines @ryanobles http://twitpic.com/o6a36 #nbc12 #RVAvote

@JorgeChazo- I was voter #1208 RT @g33kgurrl @ryanobles Voting in Chesterfield Cty no wait @ CHES I was voter #1280

@g33kgurrl Voting in Chesterfield Cty no wait @ CHES I was voter #1280

@brickworkz Really quick – no line at Short Pump Elem. 3pm today. Took me longer to park (which was also really fast!)

@bradyrick And yes I did vote this morning…in at 9:30, out at 9:31…#nbc12

@bonostph voter turnout was kinda light in warsaw va, but then again i went @ an offpeak time though(3pm).

@jbeatz615 It wasn’t crowded at all. I was expecting to be there for at least 30 minutes but the whole thing only took 10

@ErinEMurphy Voting for me went by quick! No one in there at all. I was number 148 at my precinct! #nbc12 #VaGov

@_moveon no line at 3 chopt elem around 2:30

@drinlow Voted early afternoon in west end. I was number 477. Not very busy but lots of Republican signs.

@VisartsRichmond American Legion on Cutshaw in #rva: dozen or so voters, mostly seniors, no waiting. Also: hand sanitizer.

@virginiadem Fredericksburg polls … much higher than expected voter turnout …. local Commonwealth’s Attorney race seems to be the reason

@Sarvay I see a brown bear staring at me. Oh, wait, wrong story.

@Kari_Bear Just voted in Chesterfield. I was number 462. No line, no wait. Rockin my “I Voted” sticker now

@smcq Just voted @ the Humphrey Calder Community Center on Thompson Street – Museum District. Piece of cake…no lines! #rvavote

@eblackstock This really is your Christmas, isn’t it?

@wahoobeaver Looking right now at a 10-20% turnout in parts of Southside VA for City of Emporia and Greensville County

@LauraPocketDem I will be voting this afternoon, but both my parents voted earlier at Byrd, which had meager turnout.

@rakul_nitescar Just voted @ Locust Creek (Louisa) maybe half dozen voters there at noon.

@SallyWitzky Stopped in at NASH on Ironbridge Road about an hour ago. No wait. Very polite. In and out in a jiffy.

@collinwagner voter number 843. Deeds table but no MCD. Mostly Deeds signs, also. 5 other voters present.

@mtnews Negative campaigning made clear I support their opponent’s values.

@rvabusiness- Voted at Seminary & Walton in the city @ 10:30. Steady but slow stream of voters. #rvavote

@Lulupayne no line and beautiful skies in Studley

@dellsells pretty quiet scene at the polls in Northside. Just 2 dems passing out flyers.#vagov #rva

@GarrenShipley Roughly 350 voted in Strasburg at 9:30 this morning. Not presidential turnout, but brisk for this GOP stronghold. #VaGov

@HokieEm Just voted in Western Hanover @PHHS. So far a very good turnout. I was voter #643 at 10:55am. Looking good for Republicans!

@BonnieNeighbour Walked I’m and out, no waiting, at Woodland Heights Baptist church. Voter number 215 at 10:45am #VaGov #RVA

@robbmajor Yes, I voted. At my polling place I saw people voting. And people outside trying to tell me to vote for various candidates.

@Joseph_Taylor the lone democrat flew the coop

@ivathediva I saw NOTHING at my polling place (Franklin St Lib). It was completely empty.

@Napkins I was at Falling Creek ES @ 7:15. Poll workers outnumbered voters by about 4 to 1. Volunteers for both Reps and Dems outside.

@Joseph_Taylor one dem HoD volunteer that doesn’t support Deeds-Wagner-Shannon. 3 repubs vols. Steady turnout in suburban/rural PWC precinct

@WxDan I was #38 at JR Tucker HS around 8am. No lines, and zero volunteers from either side working outside.

@wonderchook Tag Greason our local R delegate candidate out shaking hands, beyond that almost everyone over the age of 70 #vagov

@eddiRVA Around 8:15am at Mary Munford ES in Richmond there were no lines – was in and out in 5 minutes. I was #102.

@suze4405 lot of poll workers not many voters at mary munford school.

We are very excited about what we have planned for tonight on NBC12. I truly believe that we will have the most comprehensive coverage of this important election, of any media outlet in Virginia.

It started this morning on 12 News Today. Our Call 12 lines were staffed by members of the League of Women Voters. They answered your questions about the voting process, who was on the ballot, if you are registered and where to go to cast your vote.

Today starting on First at 4, we will have a complete look at the election scene. We’ll show you pictures of both candidates voting in their home precints, have updates from polling locations and anaylsis from our political expert Dan Palazzolo.

Then at 7pm, right as the polls close, we will have an Election special, hosted by Curt Autry and Sabrina Squire. We will have live reports from both campaign headquarters. Tara Morgan will be with the Republicans and Bob McDonnell, Andy Jenks with the Democrats and Creigh Deeds. We will also have reporters covering the races for Lt. Governor and Attorney General as well as Rachel DePompa who will keep a close eye on the City Council election in Richmond.

Also at 7, I will moderate an in-depth discussion on what the race means with Dan Palazzolo and two of Virginia’s most influential political bloggers, Ben Tribbett of NotLarrySabato and Norm Leahy of Tertium Quids.

We will also begin a liveblog at 7 on NBC12.com – that I will moderate, and be joined by Ben, Norm and Dan with your comments on the action.

OUR SPECIAL ELECTION COVERAGE WILL ALSO BE STREAMED LIVE ON NBC12.COM.

From 8pm on we will go back to regular programming, but will break back in, should a winner be declared or a victory/concession speech is about to be made.

Finally at 11pm- We will have a complete wrap of the day’s events and preview what Virginia can expect from it’s new elected leaders.

Plus, I will have frequent updates right here on DecisionVirginia.com

It should be a great day. Go and Vote!

So you have read every entry on Decision Virginia, now you need to know what to do actually cast your ballot.

Here is everything you need to know.

First- are you registered? Check here.

Second- do you know where you vote? Check here.

Third- have a question about voting? The answer is probably here.

Finally- what to be the first to learn who wins? Well… tune into NBC12 for our comprehensive election coverage, and watch the returns in real time, by clicking here.

All of this information comes courtesy of the Virginia State Board of Elections.

Tomorrow morning, I let you know what to look for tomorrow on NBC12, including our election special that airs on Tuesday  at 7, just after the polls close.

It was the kind of day you would expect from the two men hoping to be Virginia’s next Governor. Both Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds put together a blistering schedule that took them to all across Virginia. Both pulled out all the stops, with the hopes of grabbing every last second vote until the polls close Tuesday at 7.

McDonnell made 7 stops across Virginia, alongside Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and Attorney General candidate Ken Cuccinelli. Team McDonnell started near his childhood home in Northern Virginia and finished in Virginia Beach, where he served in the House of Delegates. (McDonnell currently lives in Henrico county)

McDonnell’s second to last stop was here in Richmond where he played to a crowd of a few hundred supporters at a hanger at Richmond International Airport. McDonnell staffers were hoping of a crowd of as many as one thousand people, but  it didn’t get quite that big. McDonnell, who still had one more speech to give and will have a speech of some sort to give tomorrow night was starting to sound a bit hoarse. Something to be expected from the amount of speech the candidate has given over the past few weeks.

Creigh Deeds made 4 stops across the Commonwealth, starting in Roanoke and concluding in Northern Virginia, where he hopes he gets a huge turnout tomorrow.

Deeds stop in Richmond was a perfect example of the Democrat’s strategy in the final weeks of the campaign. He rallied a group of college students at VCU, along with his ticketmates Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon.  Deeds spoke specifically about how that group of voters played an important role in Tuesday’s election and that an unpredictable surge in turnout could make all the polls taken leading up to tomorrow irrelevant.  He repeated his familiar line “The only poll that matters is the one that is taken on Tuesday.”

Now that the closing arguments have been made, the get out the vote effort begins.  McDonnell bragged today on the trail that the Republicans have already made hundreds of thousands of phone calls and knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors. Deeds said that they have had a plan in place that just needs to be kicked into gear. All the effort that has been built upon over the 12 plus past months all comes down to tomorrow.

Amidst all the attention given to the statewide candidates for office, I have somewhat neglected a race for an open Council Seat in the City of Richmond.

The seat came open with Del. Delores McQuinn resigned after winning the vacated seat of Mayor Dwight Jones.  There has been quite a bit of controversy over the McQuinn’s replacement and it has left 6 different candidate fighting it out for the opportunity to represent Church Hill.

Thankfully, even though I haven’t given the race it’s proper attention, our crack Richmond reporter Rachel DePompa is all over it. Here is her dispatch from Decision Richmond:

7th District Seat Council Race

By Rachel DePompa

Was there ever any doubt at what I would be covering election day? You know i’ll be chasing down the 7th district council race. There are six candidates vying for the seat originally vacated by Delores McQuinn earlier this year. Tomorrow is a special election to fill the remainder of the term. So, here goes… all you need to know about the 7th District Council Race.

Read her full dispatch here.