Decision Virginia

Ryan Nobles – bio | email

Now that the winner and losers have been officially decided at the ballot box, it is time to dig a bit deeper and see who will benefit (and lose) the most in Virginia politics.

Losers -

Gov. Tim Kaine - It is hard to believe that just a little more than a year ago, Virginia’s current governor was a whisker away from becoming the nominee for vice president of the United States. It seems that since his close friend President Barack Obama turned to the more experienced Joe Biden, Kaine’s fortunes have gone down hill. He was forced into a job he didn’t want (DNC Chair) and as a result had to constantly deal with questions about where he was having dinner each night. Taking on the job also put him at the center of yesterday’s losses not only in Virginia, but in New Jersey too, a state he has little to nothing to do with. Kaine now is left with a little less than two months to define his legacy in the governor’s mansion. A legacy that, regardless of his legislative and governing accomplishments (Smoking Ban, his stewardship in the wake of the Virginia Tech massacre), will now be defined by one huge political win (Barack Obama) and one enormous political loss (last night). Kaine, however, still enjoys the trust and friendship of the most powerful man in the world and his political destiny may still be ahead of him.

Jeff Frederick (former Republican Party chair) – Yes, there were Republicans who did not come out ahead last night and Frederick is among them. The feisty leader of the conservative wing of the party was on the precipice of causing a huge rift in the Republican party last spring. But within less than a month he became marginalized by the McDonnell machine and reduced to a few errant tweets that eventually no longer became news. In the days leading up to the campaign, Frederick tweeted about a write-in campaign for his former seat in the House of Delegates, and the formation of a separate Conservative party in Virginia. Frederick, who once held a position so powerful that his off-the-cuff comments about Barack Obama garnered national attention, may now only be remembered as the guy who once held one of the few seats in the House of Delegates that switched to the Democratic party in 2009.

Mike Henry (campaign manager for Terry McAuliffe and Steve Shannon) – Perhaps the most respected mind in Virginia politics, Henry had the distinction of presiding over two losses in one campaign season. The expectations may have been too high for a man who had been almost perfect in Virginia politics. He didn’t appear to have enough time to convince Virginia voters that McAuliffe was one of them and by the time he reached the Shannon campaign, the growing tsunami was already overwhelming. Henry is still incredibly well-respected and I am sure he will be back in the very near future (Terry McAuliffe is already considering a run in 2013).

Winners -

Phil Cox (McDonnell campaign manager) – The man at the top of the Bob McDonnell machine withstood criticism about his ties to controversial conservative groups to become the biggest “behind the scenes” player in Virginia politics. This morning Bob McDonnell named him the head of his transition team and, depending on what his goals are, he may end up with a prominent position in the new administration. Cox managed a fickle and unsettled GOP in the spring and became the first Republican campaign manger to effectively integrate the internet and social media into an overall strategy.  He also helped to guide Team McDonnell through the rough waters of the revelation of the candidate’s master’s thesis to cruise to a landslide victory.

Republican Bloggers/Internet Stars - Up until yesterday, it was just a given that Republicans would lose the war online. It may be too early to declare them victorious in 2009, but the GOP’s presence on the internet grew exponentially in this campaign. From offering right-leaning bloggers better seating at the Republican convention than the media, to gathering more Facebook friends and Twitter followers for Bob McDonnell than any other candidate, Republicans did not just hand the internet over to the Democrats. Sites like Bearing Drift have now become important players that candidates and voters can no longer ignore. They may not be the difference between winning and losing, but they are now having an impact, something they could never say before.

Brian Moran (former Democratic candidate for governor) – He watched as one of his one of his two opponents for the Democratic nomination lost in a landslide and the other already floated the idea of running again and hasn’t said a word. Brian Moran is rumored to be in talks to make a play for the Democratic Party’s chairmanship and could be well positioned to be a prominent and vocal opponent to the McDonnell administration. The former leader of the Democratic House Caucus, Moran is accustomed to the back and forth bickering related to the legislative process and could prove to be a go-to guy for reporters looking for the counterpoint to the McDonnell agenda. The question is, does he want that role? Regardless, Moran looks to have options. Options that weren’t available in early June.

The National Rifle Association is set to announce that Bob McDonnell will be their chosen candidate for Governor of Virginia this fall. The NRA chose McDonnell’s opponent Creigh Deeds when the two met four years ago in the race for Attorney General.

The decision is not too big of a surprise, considering how Deeds was hit hard by his more liberal opponents during the primary campaign about his support for gun rights. Deeds repeatedly had to explain how his position on the controversial topic has evolved. He was force to beat back an 11th hour “non-endorsement” from relatives of some Virginia Tech victims at the same time that both Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran described his position on guns as “extreme”.

It is clear that, when it comes to guns, Deeds is not the same candidate he was four years ago.

Here is the dispatch from the AP’s Bob Lewis who broke the story.
—-
AP-VA–Virginia Governor-NRA,
Gun rights group to back McDonnell

By BOB LEWIS
AP Political Writer
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) – Republican and Democratic operatives say the National Rifle Association will endorse Republican Bob McDonnell for governor.

The gun rights group plans to announce its endorsement in a Monday afternoon conference call for reporters.

People with knowledge of the NRA’s decision confirmed the endorsement on the condition they not be identified because the announcement was pending.

Both McDonnell and his opponent, Democrat R. Creigh Deeds, have supported gun rights. Four years ago, the NRA endorsed Deeds over McDonnell in their race for attorney general.

VA Tech victims Colin Goddard and Omar Samaha just released a statement encouraging voters not to support Sen. Creigh Deeds in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial primary. The language in the e-mail and its late timing had raised suspicions that the statement was encouraged by the campaigns of one or both of Deeds’ opponents, Brian Moran or Terry McAuliffe.

I just spoke to Colin Goddard and his father Andy. Goddard told me that he and Samaha and many other Virginia Tech families had watched a recent debate and had decided that Creigh Deeds was unacceptable in their eyes. He said that the families were split between Moran and McAuliffe.

However, when I asked Goddard directly about the involvement of either campaigns, he confirmed that he had received assistance from Terry McAuliffe’s campaign. Specifically he said the campaign provided he and Samaha with a press e-mail list to distribute their statement. He said the e-mail was supposed to go out Sunday, but an error was made in the sending process delaying it until today.

He denied that the campaign encouraged their efforts, and emphatically stated that the decision to release the statement was his and Samah’s idea, but he said the McAuliffe campaign was helpful in getting the information out.

When I asked Goddard who he would be voting for tomorrow, he said he had waited too long to register for an absentee ballot and was not going to be able to get to his home voting location in Richmond, so therefore would not be casting a ballot.

Goddard went further and told me that if Deeds were to be nominated tomorrow, that he and other VA Tech family members would have to have a serious conversation with the candidate. He said they would need specific assurances before they could give their support to Deeds in a race against Bob McDonnell.

McAuliffe Press Secretary Lis Smith confirmed their campaign’s involvement:

“Omar and Colin had a letter they wanted to send to the press about the primary. They asked us for a list of reporter emails and we provided the list.”
 
Brian Moran’s campaign said they had nothing to do with the statement. Campaign spokesperson Jesse Ferguson would only say the following:

“These folks have earned the right to have their opinion known and have their opinion stand on its own.”

**UPDATE**

I just received a statement from Creigh Deeds himself, reacting to the statement from the Colin Goddard and Omar Samaha:

“My heart has gone out to all of the victims and the families of the Virginia Tech tragedy.  There are certain events that happen in our lifetime that are above politics.  And I’m not going to comment on any campaign that would exploit this tragedy.”

Ryan Nobles – bio | email

In a race where he has spent the better part of 5 months trying to stay above the fray, Terry McAuliffe is taking no risks. Today in a phone interview from the campaign trail, the former DNC did not mince his words, stating plainly that his fellow Democrats, Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran do not have the ability to beat Bob McDonnell in November. Here is a portion of what he said:

“As you know, Bob already beat Creigh once and he beat him on the gas tax and they are very similar on the issue of guns, concealed guns in bars and we are just making the final argument that I can beat Bob, they can’t and I’ll put together the largest grassroots campaign the state has every seen.”

While his argument is relevant it is also risky. McAuliffe has consistently said on the campaign trail that it will be important to support whichever of the candidates emerges from the fray on Tuesday. I can imagine that if Senator Deeds wins Tuesday, these comments will provide the Republicans with some useful quotes.

I asked McAuliffe if his new attacks against Deeds are rooted in his concern that the Senator has the momentum behind him. McAuliffe said it wasn’t about momentum. He said  it was about informing Northern Virginia voters in particular about Deeds conservative stance on issues that residents of that region may not be aware of.

“I don’t think they know that he wants to take concealed weapons into bars, he has voted for them four times, he voted to override Governor Kaine’s veto twice.  I think these are big issues, big important issues.”

After the jump you can hear two different clips of my phone interview with McAuliffe. One where he explains why he is the only candidate who can beat Bob McDonnell and one where he makes his closing argument to undecided voters. Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Moran made a quick swing through Richmond this afternoon to work the phones at his campaign office on 8th Street, downtown. The candidate seemed upbeat and confident about his chances on June 9th. He told me that he is right where he wants to be at this point in the primary race.

Moran, more than any other candidate, has been taken quite a bit of heat for the tough words he and his campaign staff have used to define their opponents. For the most part, his attacks have been trained directly at Terry McAuliffe, but perhaps in an indication of where the momentum lies, both Moran and McAuliffe have taken a few shots at Sen. Creigh Deeds.

No one would argue that of the three candidates for governor, Deeds’ record is the closest to the center. It is a quality that could serve him well should he survive past Tuesday. However, by the same token, it is a drawback that may prevent him from getting that far. While Deeds has been critized for his positions on gay rights and the environment, his two opponents have seemed to focus on one issue in particular: Guns.

Both Moran and McAuliffe sent out mail pieces hammering Deeds on guns. Moran reminding voters that he won the NRA endorsement over Bob McDonnell four years ago (h/t Washington Post), and  McAuliffe reminding them that he voted to allow concealed weapons in bars (h/t Blue Virginia).

When I spoke to Moran this afternoon he called the Deeds record on guns “extreme.”

He went on to say that Deeds “is the only democratic candidate to receive the endorsement of the NRA since 1989 and this different from Warner, Kaine and myself or Jim Webb. He’s the only one who has received that recognition.”

I have reached out to the Deeds campaign for their response. If I get one, I will update the post.

**UPDATE** Deeds Communications Director Brooke Borkenhagen responded with the following statement:

“These distortions from Brian Moran won’t do anything to help move Virginia forward. He’s just trying to tear us apart.

Creigh has the same position on guns as Mark Warner and Jim Webb – two strong Virginia Democrats who have been elected in statewide primary and general elections.

The Washington Post endorsed Creigh Deeds over Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe and the editorial cited Creigh’s work to close the gunshow loophole as evidence as to why he “would make the best Governor in the Warner-Kaine tradition.”

Read the rest of this entry »

There will be no forgone conclusions come next Tuesday night. A new poll just released by Public Policy Polling has the three candidates for the Democratic nomination all within the margin of error in what now appears to be a tight race.

Here is the breakdown:

Creigh Deeds: 27%

Terry McAuliffe: 24%

Brian Moran: 22%

The poll marks an enormous jump for Creigh Deeds, who in PPP’s polling has gained a remarkable 13 points over the last few surveys. It also represents a slide for Terry McAuliffe who just a couple of weeks ago was the clear leader with 30% of the vote. The Macker has dropped 6 points. Brian Moran, meantime has held on to support in the low 20’s, just where he his campaign tells me he expected to be, 7 days before the polls open.

This poll has to make the Washington Post editorial board smile as well. Prior to their endorsement, Deeds was a non-existent player in Northern Virginia. Buoyed primarily by their support, Deeds has jumped 12 points in the region of the state where he most Democratic voters reside.    

This is by no means the end of Terry McAuliffe’s campaign. Despite impressive financial reports from both Deeds and Moran, the former DNC chair still has the most money and resources available in the last 7 days. In a race that is tied, you want to be the candidate with the most cash. 

You can see the entire PPP Poll, by clicking here.

**UPDATE**

The Moran camp released a poll of their own that shows their candidate in the lead.  Moran- 29% Deeds- 27% McAuliffe- 26% with a 4.9% margin of error. Details here. 

**UPDATE II**

The Republican Governor’s Association is touting a new poll that shows their candidate Bob McDonnell running strong in Northern Virginia.  In four NoVa counties (Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William), McDonnell is tied or trailing all three Democrats by small margins. Those four counties went to Tim Kaine and Barack Obama by 20 point margins. The poll details can be found here.

Ryan Nobles – bio | email

Brian Moran will bring his campaign for Governor to Richmond on Monday. The former House Democratic Leader will meet with small business owners at Jean Jacques Bakery in Carytown. After a series of setbacks, the Moran camp seems to be bouncing back a bit. Moran won the important Fairfax County Straw Poll over the weekend, which is the home county of his opponent Terry McAuliffe. He also won the support of the Virginia Young Democrats. 

Moran continues to battle for the nomination, strategically placing his ad-buys and appearances. He has worked hard over the past few weeks to quietly court Veterans in Hampton Roads and small business owners throughout the state. (One of the reasons he comes to Richmond today.) At the same time Moran’s team has attempted to muddy Terry McAuliffe up by sending out a regular missive entitled the “Pinocchio Report”, where they point out examples of where it appears the former DNC chair has been less than truthful. 

His resilience is an example of how unpredictable this primary really could be. Despite losing key endorsements like the Washington Post and the League of Conservation Voters and losing ground in the polls, the Moran camp shows no signs of slowing down. While veteran political analysts seem to believe Terry McAuliffe will be tough to beat, few seem willing to bodly predict his victory because the number and type of voters that will turnout is impossible to determine. 

Just over a week to go and it looks like we won’t really know anything until the polls close. 

Details on Moran’s event in Richmond are after the jump…
Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Nobles – bio | email

It is something that Terry McAuliffe often says on the campaign trail: “I will not say a negative word about a fellow Democrat.” His repeated claim to stay above the fray puts him at risk for greater scrutiny when he says anything that could be interpreted as being negative of a fellow Democrat. A new mail piece sent to potential Democratic voters has made the candidate’s critics wonder if he has broken that pledge.

The mail piece shows four columns with facts about the candidates for governor and then a scratch-off box at the bottom that reveals which candidate is connected to which claims. Among other things, the piece accuses Creigh Deeds of voting to “legitimize pay-day lending” and accepting gifts from lobbyists. It accuses Brian Moran of taking a trip to the Bahamas on a lobbyist’s dime and taking tens of thousands of dollars from Dominion Power’s PAC.

McAuliffe campaign press secretary Lis Smith said that the piece is not negative. She said that the candidate has always said that “there are differences between the candidates on issues and experience, and that’s legitimate to discuss. But Terry’s not attacking other Democrats, and believes any of the three would be better than McDonnell.” She went on to say that all the mail piece does is “compare everyone’s records.”

Creigh Deeds’ campaign, as you might imagine, doesn’t agree. Deeds spokesperson, Brooke Borkenhagen, said that the mail piece is evidence that “Terry is running scared. That’s why Terry is trying to hustle Virginia voters with this deceptive mail piece.” Borkenhagen also reminded me that while McAuliffe did not take money from Dominion’s PAC specifically, he has taken more than $12,000 from former Dominion executives.

Meanwhile, Brian Moran’s campaign manager, Andrew Roos, called the mail piece a “false, negative attack.” He also said “Brian Moran will take no lectures on ethics from the booking agent of the Lincoln bedroom and the architect of the Business Leadership Forum. The last place we would go for a public service lesson is a Wall Street insider.”

How will voters and supporters of McAuliffe – many of whom often site his efforts to stay positive – react to this attempt to “compare the records of the candidates”? 

After the jump, I re-posted our video from the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Richmond where McAuliffe first made the pledge to not attack his fellow Democrats. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Nobles – bio | email  

Despite having two different candidates from their paper’s base of Northern Virginia to choose from, the Washington Post editorial board is encouraging its readers to vote for Creigh Deeds in the democratic primary for Governor. In the paper’s explanation of its decision, they went as far to call Deeds (who hails from rural Bath County) as the candidate who ”has demonstrated an understanding of the problems that matter most, the commitment to solve them and the capacity to get things done.”

You can read the entire endorsement here. 

The article hails Deeds’ efforts to find solutions to important Virginia problems such as transportation, and tempers his stance on social issues which may make NoVa liberal voters a bit squeamish. The endorsement is not wavering in its support, it emphatically and undeniably states its belief that Deeds is the candidate best apt to handle the job. 

The question is, will it matter? There is no doubt that the endorsement of a newspaper, even a paper as important as the Washington Post, does not carry the same weight that it once did. However, a endorsement like this, particularly one that comes as a relative shock, could be enough to get the attention of uncommitted voters, still waiting to make up their mind. 

Over the past several days a whole hosts of polls have emerged that seem to indicate that Terry McAuliffe is starting to break away from the pack. Deeds and Brian Moran for that matter, needed a diversion to change the conversation.

Northern Virginia is just one of several pivitol battlegrounds set for primary day, but in a region he is not expected to do well in, Creigh Deeds just picked up an important win. 

It has the potential to be the most important debate of the primary. Creigh Deeds, Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe are set to square off in Northern Virginia for the Washington Post debate at 2pm.

You can watch a live stream of the action here.

Aside from being streamed live on the internet, the debate will also be re-broadcast tonight in the Washington, D.C. television market. That means it will be seen in the most heavily populated region of the state and the “bluest” region of Virginia.  It is the section of the state where many potential primary voters reside.

I’ll have a recap of the action later tonight.

**UPDATE** Find my assessment of the action after the jump…
Read the rest of this entry »