Decision Virginia

Ryan Nobles – bio | email

Now that the winner and losers have been officially decided at the ballot box, it is time to dig a bit deeper and see who will benefit (and lose) the most in Virginia politics.

Losers -

Gov. Tim Kaine - It is hard to believe that just a little more than a year ago, Virginia’s current governor was a whisker away from becoming the nominee for vice president of the United States. It seems that since his close friend President Barack Obama turned to the more experienced Joe Biden, Kaine’s fortunes have gone down hill. He was forced into a job he didn’t want (DNC Chair) and as a result had to constantly deal with questions about where he was having dinner each night. Taking on the job also put him at the center of yesterday’s losses not only in Virginia, but in New Jersey too, a state he has little to nothing to do with. Kaine now is left with a little less than two months to define his legacy in the governor’s mansion. A legacy that, regardless of his legislative and governing accomplishments (Smoking Ban, his stewardship in the wake of the Virginia Tech massacre), will now be defined by one huge political win (Barack Obama) and one enormous political loss (last night). Kaine, however, still enjoys the trust and friendship of the most powerful man in the world and his political destiny may still be ahead of him.

Jeff Frederick (former Republican Party chair) – Yes, there were Republicans who did not come out ahead last night and Frederick is among them. The feisty leader of the conservative wing of the party was on the precipice of causing a huge rift in the Republican party last spring. But within less than a month he became marginalized by the McDonnell machine and reduced to a few errant tweets that eventually no longer became news. In the days leading up to the campaign, Frederick tweeted about a write-in campaign for his former seat in the House of Delegates, and the formation of a separate Conservative party in Virginia. Frederick, who once held a position so powerful that his off-the-cuff comments about Barack Obama garnered national attention, may now only be remembered as the guy who once held one of the few seats in the House of Delegates that switched to the Democratic party in 2009.

Mike Henry (campaign manager for Terry McAuliffe and Steve Shannon) – Perhaps the most respected mind in Virginia politics, Henry had the distinction of presiding over two losses in one campaign season. The expectations may have been too high for a man who had been almost perfect in Virginia politics. He didn’t appear to have enough time to convince Virginia voters that McAuliffe was one of them and by the time he reached the Shannon campaign, the growing tsunami was already overwhelming. Henry is still incredibly well-respected and I am sure he will be back in the very near future (Terry McAuliffe is already considering a run in 2013).

Winners -

Phil Cox (McDonnell campaign manager) – The man at the top of the Bob McDonnell machine withstood criticism about his ties to controversial conservative groups to become the biggest “behind the scenes” player in Virginia politics. This morning Bob McDonnell named him the head of his transition team and, depending on what his goals are, he may end up with a prominent position in the new administration. Cox managed a fickle and unsettled GOP in the spring and became the first Republican campaign manger to effectively integrate the internet and social media into an overall strategy.  He also helped to guide Team McDonnell through the rough waters of the revelation of the candidate’s master’s thesis to cruise to a landslide victory.

Republican Bloggers/Internet Stars - Up until yesterday, it was just a given that Republicans would lose the war online. It may be too early to declare them victorious in 2009, but the GOP’s presence on the internet grew exponentially in this campaign. From offering right-leaning bloggers better seating at the Republican convention than the media, to gathering more Facebook friends and Twitter followers for Bob McDonnell than any other candidate, Republicans did not just hand the internet over to the Democrats. Sites like Bearing Drift have now become important players that candidates and voters can no longer ignore. They may not be the difference between winning and losing, but they are now having an impact, something they could never say before.

Brian Moran (former Democratic candidate for governor) – He watched as one of his one of his two opponents for the Democratic nomination lost in a landslide and the other already floated the idea of running again and hasn’t said a word. Brian Moran is rumored to be in talks to make a play for the Democratic Party’s chairmanship and could be well positioned to be a prominent and vocal opponent to the McDonnell administration. The former leader of the Democratic House Caucus, Moran is accustomed to the back and forth bickering related to the legislative process and could prove to be a go-to guy for reporters looking for the counterpoint to the McDonnell agenda. The question is, does he want that role? Regardless, Moran looks to have options. Options that weren’t available in early June.

Local Congressman Eric Cantor (who is fast becoming one of the chief voices of opposition to President Barack Obama) is working hard to prevent attempts to move enemy combatants, currently housed at Guantanamo Bay, to military prisons in Virginia.

Closing down Guantanamo was a campaign pledge for the President and he promised to make it a reality in the very early stages of his administration. Shutting the facility down isn’t the problem, it is what to do after that is making life difficult for Mr. Obama and his staff.

By closing Gitmo’s doors, the Federal Government is faced with the daunting proposition of what to do with the detainees held at the facility. It seems that every scenario creates a bigger problem. By releasing them to their home countries, you run the risk of letting them return to the activity that got them into the military prison to begin with. By housing them in U.S., you run the risk of creating new, in-country terrorist targets and will be forced to spend taxpayer dollars to fortify the the proposed installations.

This laundry list of problems has created an opportunity for Eric Cantor. Cantor has become very vocal in his opposition to any of the proposed solutions, citing the reasons above. Cantor has proposed legislation that would force the feds to receive approval from the governor and state legislatures of any state that could become home to these enemy combatants. That would effectively prevent any terror suspects from being brought to the U.S. because no politician would run the risk of approving a move that is bound to be unpopular.

However, Cantor and (no other politician for that matter) seems to have the solution. It has created a problem that will just continue to grow.

After the jump you watch the video from out story on this topic that aired on NBC12 Friday night. In addition, I have an extended clip from Rep. Cantor where he reveals that he is supporting Pat Mullins for Republican Party of Virginia Chair. You may recall that we broke the news a few weeks ago that Mr. Cantor was no longer supportive of Jeff Frederick as chairman.

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 Jeff Frederick just sent an e-mail  to his supporters, (headlined by the logo above) announcing his decision that he will not be among a group of candidates seeking the chairmanship of the Republican Party of Virginia. The news finally brings his brief and tumultuous tenure as the party leader to a close.

In addition to his decision to not seek the party chairmanship, Frederick also announced that he will not be seeking any public office in the near future. That includes his seat in the House of Delegates. Frederick stepped away from the seat as part of a pledge he made in his campaign for the party chairmanship. At one point his wife Amy was exploring the possibility of running, but backed out last week. Frederick probably missed an opportunity to run for the position anyway when he missed the filing deadline to run in a primary (although there are rumors that he was exploring what options were available to him). 

While the announcement officially takes Frederick out of the mix as a candidate and statewide political leader, it is by no means the end of his career. The brash former chairman is still very young and enjoys the support of many within the Republican Party. It is no secret that many party leaders were scared to death that he had the potential to mobilize the support necessary to pull off winning the chairmanship again at the upcoming Republican convention. 

In the e-mail, Frederick encourages his supporters to not back the appointed candidate of the State Central Committee (who he never mentions by name), Pat Mullins. He also pledges that his “break” from public life will not be a “long sabbatical”. 

Rest assured, this is not the last time we will hear from Jeff Frederick. 

The full text of his e-mail to supporters is after the jump.
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Ryan Nobles – bio | email

The State Central Committee of the Republican Party of Virginia has selected current Louisa County Republican Chairman Pat Mullins as chairman of the state party. Mullins will keep watch over the party until the entire state committee gets the chance to pick a new chair at the end of the month. Mullins is a longtime party insider and at one time served as the Chairman of the Fairfax County GOP before moving Louisa County.

While Mullins could be a candidate to take over the job full time, his election today does not spell the end of Jeff Frederick’s tenure at the RPV. Frederick who has, for the most part, been quiet since being removed from the post, began posting again on his twitter page. Yes- that same twitter page that was among the many problems that contributed to his demise at the top of the party.

No one seems to sure as to what Frederick’s next move will be. Despite his problems he still enjoys the support of a rabid group of generally conservative Republican members who are no doubt encouraging him to not give up. That support could lead to Frederick submitting his name for election once again as RPV Chair. He could also run again for his seat in the House of Delegates. (His wife Amy announced earlier this week that she will not run for the position).

While few expect Frederick to go away quietly perhaps this post on his twitter feed from today, may lend some insight as to what his next move may be.

@JeffFrederick-VAGOP SCC selected new chair; bad move since appt only valid 4 27 days. An attempt to instruct the Convention delegates, once again showing disdain 4 grassroots.

Frederick’s tweet then led to a lively discussion on Facebook, that was compiled by Bearing Drift.

And who says Republicans don’t “do” social media? This fight is far from over.

Meanwhile, Bob McDonnell, the party’s candidate for Governor (who may be suffering the most from this controversy) released a statement on the Mullins appointment. You can read it, in its entirety after the jump..

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BREAKING NEWS- Republican party of Virginia Chairman Jeff Frederick has been formally removed from his position after a vote of 57-18 from the party’s executive committee. Three quarters of the executive committee was required to remove Frederick, which was 55 votes. Frederick loses his position by only two votes.

We will have more tonight on NBC12 news at 6.  I will also have more updates here and on my twitter feed.

**UPDATE**

Here is Bob Lewis’ dispatch from the Associated Press with the details:

BC-VA–Virginia Republicans-Frederick,0129
By BOB LEWIS
AP Political Writer
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) – Virginia Republican Party Chairman Jeff Frederick was ousted Saturday after a troubled 10-month tenure capped by devastating losses in last year’s elections.

The state party’s governing central committee voted 57-18 to remove Frederick after key Virginia Republican elected officials and top party leaders called for him to resign or be fired.

The effort to sack the conservative, often combative and sometimes embarrassing state legislator from Prince William came after 58 members of the central committee signed off on a list of 10 charges against him.

The focus of the allegations was his handling of state party finances. Mike Thomas, a leader of the movement to oust Frederick, takes over as interim party chairman, a role he has served three times since 2003.

(Copyright 2009 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

**UPDATE** To see our report on NBC12 click here. Read the rest of this entry »

While much has been made of the opposition that Jeff Frederick has faced from members of the Republican party, it is worth pointing out that for all the scrutiny he has faced, the chairman still has a loyal and rabid following amongst the RPV’s conservative wing.

That was displayed this morning as 50 or so supporters came bearing signs, cheering on their chairman. They were hoping to swing weary executive committee members that have yet to make a decision.  Many Frederick supporters are concerned that if he is forcefully pushed out, that the conservative voice within the party could become marginalized and ultimately taken for granted.

This could cause problems for gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell, who has conservative credentials that are difficult to argue with, but is still attempting to walk a fine line of moderate politics.  Conservative Virginians, by in large support McDonnell, but they are concerned about they way he is flirting with Northern Virgina moderates and liberals whose ideology they despise.  If conservative supporters of Jeff Frederick feel he was given a raw deal, that could force a backlash that could reverberate through the McDonnell campaign.

Of course given the current state of the upcoming election, would conservatives really abandon a pro-life, pro-gun, ant-card check candidate for the state’s highest office? McDonnell has to be a much better choice, given their views than any of the candidates on the Democratic side or an insurgent conservative who would have little to no chance of winning.

After the jump I have video from this morning from Jeff Frederick’s grassroots coordinator John Darden. He explained why he and his fellow conservatives are backing the Chairman.

**UPDATE** Live coverage from Bearing Drift of the Frederick vote will continue again at 4pm. Click here to listen in.

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Ryan Nobles - bio | email

Members of the Republican Party of Virginia’s executive committee are huddled behind closed doors at a hotel in Henrico, discussing the future of embattled Chairman Jeff Frederick. A group of the party’s executive committee believes they have the votes to remove him from the post, but the Chairman is defiant and refuses to step down. Elected members of the party, including their candidate for Governor Bob McDonnell and the entire congressional delegation including local Rep. Eric Cantor have asked him to step down. 

According to various reports, Frederick arrived to a crowd of 50 or so supporters holding signs and displaying their support. He ran into an early problem when one of his supporters proxy votes was ruled invalid. According to Anita Kumar at the Washington Post, 66 of the 77 members were present and 10 sent in proxies. She also reports that both sides came armed with thick briefing books for and against the chairman’s cause. 

Bearing Drift is running a live internet radio broadcast of the proceedings. They just reported that a number of procedural votes have gone against Frederick. They also say that there is little to indicate that Frederick will hold on to his post, but the vote could be closer than some expect. 

We have a crew stopping buy the vote and will have an update tonight on NBC12 at 6. I will also provide updates here and on my twitter feed.

Ryan Nobles - bio | email

Embattled Republican Party of Virginia chairman Jeff Frederick is now less than a week away from a critical meeting that could decide his fate. Frederick has endured calls for his resignation from the party’s candidate for Governor, It’s entire congressional delegation, the leadership of the State Senate and a good portion of the leadership of the House of Delegates. He has pinned his hopes on an upcoming April 4th meeting where he says he has the votes to survive if a challenge were made to his leadership. 

The conservative blog Bearing Drift is reporting today that Frederick may not make it to that April 4th meeting. They say rumors are swelling that the chairman could step down on Friday, the day before that meeting is set to take place. However, I just heard from the party’s spokesman Gerry Scimeca who told me that those rumors are “absolutely not true”. He went on to say that Frederick has retained counsel to help fight for his position on Saturday. 

While this was all taking place, Frederick and party central continued on as if nothing was wrong. They continued to send out their weekly e-mail alerts and put out press releases announcing speakers to the upcoming RPV convention and congratulating a Republican winner in a local election in Northern Virginia.  Frederick is not acting like he is going anywhere. It appears he is willing to take this fight until the bitter end.

Ryan Nobles - bio | email

In the midst of the controversy surrounding RPV Chairman Jeff Frederick’s embattled tenure, one thing we haven’t heard much is Frederick’s side of the story. It’s not that reporters haven’t tried. Aside from a few carefully worded written statements on the topic, Mr. Frederick has either refused or ignored attempts for interviews. But despite his reluctance to get out in front of this issue questions still remain. Why, with the weight of the biggest names of the GOP coming down upon him, has he refused to resign?

Right around the time former Attorney General Bob McDonnell issued a statement asking Frederick to step down, the Chairman put out a statement of his own where he emphatically defended his right to stay in the job. At the time he said:

“I have every intention of continuing as Chairman and completing my term in May 2012. I have the commitments necessary to win the vote on April 4th, and will fulfill my term and the commitment to the people who entrusted me to lead our Party back to victory.”

It seems that the Chairman has been given just enough support from the people he gave that commitment to. Early in the week at a debate between Republican GOP candidates in Loudon County, Frederick received a very warm welcome. (See the video after the jump). In addition not every Republican elected official has called him to step down. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and AG candidate Ken Cuccienlli have both said they are staying out of the fray. Bob Marshall the fiery conservative delegate who can within a whisker of becoming the party’s candidate for Senate has asked for an independent commission to decide his fate.

Insider Republicans are speculating that the conservative wing of the party which ushered Frederick to his victory, is urging him to continue to wage this fight, because in their mind it could define the future of the GOP. That theory gains support when you see comments posted in defense of Frederick and just about every blog post about this story. (By no means a scientific assessment, but notable none the less.)

I have a standing offer to Mr. Frederick to get his side of the story, but it appears he will remain mum until that April 4th meeting where it looks like he will fight to the end. We will see if he can hold out that long, and what repercussions the party suffers in the wake of this showdown.

See video from the AG debate after the jump…

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We just talked to Rep. Eric Cantor at an event he was holding at the Massey Cancer Center in Richmond. The House Minority Whip is one the most visible Republicans in the state. Today he joined the party’s nominee for Governor Bob McDonnell by calling for RPV chairman Jeff Frederick to step down.

Here is Mr. Cantor’s quote:

“I don’t think there is any question that current chairman has lost the support of the grass roots, has lost the support of the business community in the state and probably best that he move on and that we focus very much on the future of Virginia and this year obviously being an election year that is very important.”

Cantor went on to leave no doubt as to where he stood on the controversy.

“I think that the controversy surrounding chairman Frederick indicates that he has lost the support of so much of the grass roots of our party , the business community and others that is why I think it is time for us to move on.”

And on how it could impact the race for Governor:

“Listen, I think that Bob McDonnell has the grass roots behind him, he has a big advantage in that our party is united behind his effort.”

Finally.. what’s next?

“I think it is all about how we go forward and given the state of the economy here in Virginia and the real need for leadership and  vision it is an opportunity for our party to reunite and to get about communicating with the people of this state of our vision for Virginia.”

SEE THE VIDEO FROM CANTOR’S COMMENTS AFTER THE JUMP:

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