Decision Virginia

It is at it should be with now only two weeks to go before election day. A full slate of an important and potentially pivotal political events take place on Tuesday as candidates make the sprint toward the final vote.

First- two new polls out yesterday, both good news for the Republicans.

*A CNU/WCVE/Virginian Pilot poll has Bob McDonnell running away with the election. The poll has McDonnell up 14 points and the rest of the GOP was up as well. The poll did not include so called “leaners”, meaning that the undecided pool was very large. As expected Democrats poked fun at the results.

*The second poll, released this morning by Clarus Research Group shows McDonnell leading by a comfortable 8 points. This same poll, taken a month ago showed Creigh Deeds closing the gap. In a release the poll’s director Ron Faucheux wrote that “Deeds has failed to gain sustained momentum,”.

*A third poll, from Public Policy Polling is expected to be released later today.

Secondly- Even though Deeds is behind in the polls today marks the start of a big push to get his voters to the poll.

*Today in Northern Virginia the Democratic Nominee will hold a rally with Former President Bill Clinton and his former rival Terry McAuliffe. The Macker, is back buzzing on social media sites this morning, pledging that Deeds will beat the odds and he will then win a bet he made with Republican strategist Karl Rove on Fox News Sunday.

*Deeds is also specifically targeting the African-American vote today with the help of the group “Black Women for Obama for Change”. This very engaged organization of African-American women worked hard to get the black vote out for Barack Obama in last year’s election. Today they begin phone banks across Virginia featuring prominent black leaders encouraging their community to come out to vote.

*The Deeds team is also attempting to get women excited about the Democratic campaign. First Lady Anne Holton and VEA President Dr. Kitty Boitnott will lead a bus tour through Central Virginia that talks specifically about education. The bus will make stops in Charlottesville, Petersburg and Richmond.

Oh.. and there is a DEBATE tonight…

*The final debate between Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds will take place tonight at Roanoke College in Salem. It will produced by our affiliate WSLS. The Debate will be seen in only a few television markets throughout the Commonwealth, but you can watch the debate streamed live on our web site NBC12.com.

We’ll have complete coverage of all of this activity throughout the day, including a complete recap of tonight’s debate on NBC12 news at 11.

The National Rifle Association is set to announce that Bob McDonnell will be their chosen candidate for Governor of Virginia this fall. The NRA chose McDonnell’s opponent Creigh Deeds when the two met four years ago in the race for Attorney General.

The decision is not too big of a surprise, considering how Deeds was hit hard by his more liberal opponents during the primary campaign about his support for gun rights. Deeds repeatedly had to explain how his position on the controversial topic has evolved. He was force to beat back an 11th hour “non-endorsement” from relatives of some Virginia Tech victims at the same time that both Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran described his position on guns as “extreme”.

It is clear that, when it comes to guns, Deeds is not the same candidate he was four years ago.

Here is the dispatch from the AP’s Bob Lewis who broke the story.
—-
AP-VA–Virginia Governor-NRA,
Gun rights group to back McDonnell

By BOB LEWIS
AP Political Writer
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) – Republican and Democratic operatives say the National Rifle Association will endorse Republican Bob McDonnell for governor.

The gun rights group plans to announce its endorsement in a Monday afternoon conference call for reporters.

People with knowledge of the NRA’s decision confirmed the endorsement on the condition they not be identified because the announcement was pending.

Both McDonnell and his opponent, Democrat R. Creigh Deeds, have supported gun rights. Four years ago, the NRA endorsed Deeds over McDonnell in their race for attorney general.

During the primary campaign, former candidate for governor, Terry McAuliffe was very active on the social networking site twitter. He regularly posted comments from the trail about the different events he had attended and issues that he was concerned about. Not surprisingly, once the campaign ended, his tweets slowed down. In fact since primary day, the Macker has only tweeted twice. On, September 4th he gave his opinion on the Bob McDonnell thesis controversy and then this today:

It is not everyday that a former candidate for governor calls you out on twitter. (Although I almost missed it because he gave my handle an extra “n”- h/t to Ben Tribbett for pointing me to it. )

Obviously a 140 character tweet doesn’t provide much insight into what McAuliffe was thinking, but he pointed me to this editorial by the Roanoke Times that criticizes McDonnell’s energy policy. In that editorial, McAuliffe is quoted as saying that his goal is to make Virginia, “the number one renewable energy state in the country.”

According to the Bob McDonnell campaign web site, the candidate’s slogan when it comes to energy is “More Energy, More Jobs.” It is a plan that the campaign told me was unveiled April 27th.

However, the McDonnell campaign recently released this ad which prominently features the new slogan “New Energy, New Jobs.” This ad was posted on YouTube on August 25th.

While McAuliffe never used “New Energy, New Jobs” as a main campaign slogan, he too released an ad that prominently featured a similar slogan: “New Energy FOR New Jobs” His ad was posted to YouTube on April 26th.

**UPDATE**

Supporters of Mr. McAuliffe have taken exception to what they percieved as an inference that the “New Energy for New Jobs” was not a central campaign theme for the candidate. While I never said it wasn’t, (parsing words, I know, but I wrote that the slogan without “for” was not a major campaign slogan) it should be pointed out that “New Energy for New Jobs”, was indeed a major camapign slogan. In fact here is a picture from his kickoff event in Richmond that features a large banner with slogan: (Photo taken from the McAuliffe Flickr account)

The event happened a while ago, but admitedlly I should’ve remembered it, because I was there.

The McDonnell campaign pointed me to their web site that shows the candidate’s energy plan, but they didn’t have a specific comment about the very similar slogans.

To the best of my knowledge, the McAuliffe team did not trademark the slogan, so there is not anything illegal about stealing or copying slogan.

Perhaps that is why he decided to let me know about it in such a public way.

Terry McAuliffe has promised a massive get out the vote (GOTV) operation and early indications are that he is delivering. So far this morning the former DNC chair has already sent out two text messages reminding people that support him to vote. 

But the text messages are only part of the operation. McAuliffe’s team is working the phones and other forms of social media. Voters that signed up to be the candidates friend on Facebook, or decided to become his “fan” received a reminder this morning to make sure that they get out and vote.

Voter turnout is usually one of the most over-anaylzed statistics used by the media to assess where the vote is headed before the polls close, because it is basically the only statistic available. Today McAuliffe’s people are probably hoping for higher than expected turnout numbers, especially in urban areas, if they hope to win. 

Most experts believe, based on past statewide Democratic primaries, that turnout will be somewhere between 150,000- 300,000 voters. In a state with 5,068,812 registered voters, turnout could be less than 15%.

VA Tech victims Colin Goddard and Omar Samaha just released a statement encouraging voters not to support Sen. Creigh Deeds in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial primary. The language in the e-mail and its late timing had raised suspicions that the statement was encouraged by the campaigns of one or both of Deeds’ opponents, Brian Moran or Terry McAuliffe.

I just spoke to Colin Goddard and his father Andy. Goddard told me that he and Samaha and many other Virginia Tech families had watched a recent debate and had decided that Creigh Deeds was unacceptable in their eyes. He said that the families were split between Moran and McAuliffe.

However, when I asked Goddard directly about the involvement of either campaigns, he confirmed that he had received assistance from Terry McAuliffe’s campaign. Specifically he said the campaign provided he and Samaha with a press e-mail list to distribute their statement. He said the e-mail was supposed to go out Sunday, but an error was made in the sending process delaying it until today.

He denied that the campaign encouraged their efforts, and emphatically stated that the decision to release the statement was his and Samah’s idea, but he said the McAuliffe campaign was helpful in getting the information out.

When I asked Goddard who he would be voting for tomorrow, he said he had waited too long to register for an absentee ballot and was not going to be able to get to his home voting location in Richmond, so therefore would not be casting a ballot.

Goddard went further and told me that if Deeds were to be nominated tomorrow, that he and other VA Tech family members would have to have a serious conversation with the candidate. He said they would need specific assurances before they could give their support to Deeds in a race against Bob McDonnell.

McAuliffe Press Secretary Lis Smith confirmed their campaign’s involvement:

“Omar and Colin had a letter they wanted to send to the press about the primary. They asked us for a list of reporter emails and we provided the list.”
 
Brian Moran’s campaign said they had nothing to do with the statement. Campaign spokesperson Jesse Ferguson would only say the following:

“These folks have earned the right to have their opinion known and have their opinion stand on its own.”

**UPDATE**

I just received a statement from Creigh Deeds himself, reacting to the statement from the Colin Goddard and Omar Samaha:

“My heart has gone out to all of the victims and the families of the Virginia Tech tragedy.  There are certain events that happen in our lifetime that are above politics.  And I’m not going to comment on any campaign that would exploit this tragedy.”

After weeks of touting Terry McAuliffe as “the” candidate to take on Bob McDonnell in November, two polls that seem to indicate that Creigh Deeds is running away with the primary have sharply turned the moods of independent bloggers behind the Macker’s candidacy. 

Perhaps McAuliffe’s biggest backer Lowell Feld, the creator of the netroots sensation “Raising Kaine” and now the author of the popular “Blue Virginia” posted a melancholy entry today entitled “The Only Poll that Matters“.  The post in part says the following:

“The SurveyUSA poll results (Deeds 42%, McAuliffe 30%, Moran 21%) that just came out doesn’t look good for Terry supporters like me. On the other hand, cliches are sometimes true, so let’s hope that “the only poll that matters is the one on election day” cliche holds up tomorrow.”

While Feld hasn’t given up quite yet and is encouraging his readers to work hard to get McAuliffe supporters to the polls, relying on the idea of a “cliche” holding up does not emote confidence.

But Feld isn’t the only one. Ben Tribbett, of the famous “NotLarrySabato” blog who got quite a bit of publicity when his endorsement of McAuliffe led to the candidate appearing in a YouTube video accepting the nomination, tweeted the following yesterday:

@notlarrysabato “There’s a fairly good chance none of my endorsements will win Tuesday. I don’t endorse to pick a winner, I endorse the best person.”

Tribett followed up his tweet with a blog post last night that told everyone interested in the election to not worry about the polls.

“The Creigh surge is real.  My thoughts…Ignore the polls.  Go fight for your candidate for another day and a half, and let’s pick a winner tomorrow night instead of today.”

Their changing moods show how the support of independent bloggers can be good and bad. While Feld and Tribbett have provided McAuliffe an excellent opportunity to spread his message, they are not employed by the campaign. They can say whatever they want and while they often regurgitate talking points, both have a reputation to protect. Their readers expect an honest assessment of their view of the race.

Right now, that is exactly what they are giving them. 

Ryan Nobles – bio | email

In a race where he has spent the better part of 5 months trying to stay above the fray, Terry McAuliffe is taking no risks. Today in a phone interview from the campaign trail, the former DNC did not mince his words, stating plainly that his fellow Democrats, Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran do not have the ability to beat Bob McDonnell in November. Here is a portion of what he said:

“As you know, Bob already beat Creigh once and he beat him on the gas tax and they are very similar on the issue of guns, concealed guns in bars and we are just making the final argument that I can beat Bob, they can’t and I’ll put together the largest grassroots campaign the state has every seen.”

While his argument is relevant it is also risky. McAuliffe has consistently said on the campaign trail that it will be important to support whichever of the candidates emerges from the fray on Tuesday. I can imagine that if Senator Deeds wins Tuesday, these comments will provide the Republicans with some useful quotes.

I asked McAuliffe if his new attacks against Deeds are rooted in his concern that the Senator has the momentum behind him. McAuliffe said it wasn’t about momentum. He said  it was about informing Northern Virginia voters in particular about Deeds conservative stance on issues that residents of that region may not be aware of.

“I don’t think they know that he wants to take concealed weapons into bars, he has voted for them four times, he voted to override Governor Kaine’s veto twice.  I think these are big issues, big important issues.”

After the jump you can hear two different clips of my phone interview with McAuliffe. One where he explains why he is the only candidate who can beat Bob McDonnell and one where he makes his closing argument to undecided voters. Read the rest of this entry »

Terry McAuliffe admits that the race for the Democratic nomination is a close one but, he claims, he always thought it was going to be that way.

“There is one poll and that is on election day,” McAuliffe told me today after a tour of the ChemTreat facility in Glen Allen.

McAuliffe will spend the next few days criss-crossing the state hoping to encourage as many people to get to the polls as possible next Tuesday. Part of that barnstorming tour will include an appearance tomorrow with the chairman of the Democratic Governor’s Association, Brian Schewitzer. The Governor of Montana will be endorsing the former DNC chair on his own behalf, not as the leader of the organization.

Despite McAuliffe’s confidence, there is no doubt his campaign has hit a rough patch that began around the time Creigh Deeds earned the endorsement of the Washington Post. In that time, polls have shown Deeds steadily gaining ground while McAuliffe has slowly tracked back. The third candidate in the race, Brian Moran, has remained steady.

McAuliffe didn’t want to talk to me about polls. His focus was the ground game he is set to unleash on June 9th. A campaign veteran, McAuliffe said his team is ready to send thousands of volunteers into the field to get his supporters to the polls.

“Last weekend we had more than 5,800 people volunteering throughout Virginia, knocking on doors, making phone calls,” said the candidate. “We have built a massive grassroots get-out-the-vote operation.”

He rejected the idea that his dip in the polls could be attributed to the attacks that have come from his opponents, instead claiming their surge was due to their new presence on television. He said he has just brushed off the attacks and his favorable ratings have actually gone up. 

“When they attack you, you know you must be doing well if they are paying attention to you,” McAuliffe said.

But when I pointed out his own mail piece that was described by one of the competing campaigns as a “false, negative attack,” McAuliffe rejected that claim: ”If you think it is negative to talk about your record, than maybe you shouldn’t have voted the way you did.”

My complete, uncut interview with Mr. McAuliffe (including his reaction to Governor Doug Wilder’s rejection of his campaign) can be found after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »

Democratic hopeful Terry McAuliffe and Republican nominee Bob McDonnell will both host major events today in Richmond as the days before the Democratic primary voters go to the polls wind down. 

While this week is all about the Democrats, McDonnell appears to be unwilling to let voters forget about him. You may have noticed that mixed in with the regular onslaught of Democratic ads on TV, McDonnell’s face seems to pop up the most (in part because in addition to his ads, the Democratic Governor’s Association group, Common Sense Virginia, is still spending big dollars in commercials attacking his record).

Today McDonnell tackles an issue that is usually a favorite of Democrats: education. He will announce the second phase of his education plan, that will in part, propose the expansion of charter schools in the commonwealth. 

Meanwhile, up the road in Henrico County, Terry McAuliffe will host a round table with business leaders at a company in Glen Allen. Despite all the attacks on his campaign and his dip in the polls, McAuliffe has not swayed from his primary message of job creation. Following the event in Henrico, the Macker comes to Richmond to work the phones with volunteers at his headquarters on Franklin Street. McAuliffe may be particularly interested in shoring up his vote here in Richmond with some polls showing him trailing in the Capital City. The much discussed PPP poll has him behind in 804 area code. (Moran- 29%, McAuliffe 23%, Deeds-21%  **see page 13 of the poll breakdown)

The details from both RVA events can be found after the jump–

Read the rest of this entry »

There will be no forgone conclusions come next Tuesday night. A new poll just released by Public Policy Polling has the three candidates for the Democratic nomination all within the margin of error in what now appears to be a tight race.

Here is the breakdown:

Creigh Deeds: 27%

Terry McAuliffe: 24%

Brian Moran: 22%

The poll marks an enormous jump for Creigh Deeds, who in PPP’s polling has gained a remarkable 13 points over the last few surveys. It also represents a slide for Terry McAuliffe who just a couple of weeks ago was the clear leader with 30% of the vote. The Macker has dropped 6 points. Brian Moran, meantime has held on to support in the low 20’s, just where he his campaign tells me he expected to be, 7 days before the polls open.

This poll has to make the Washington Post editorial board smile as well. Prior to their endorsement, Deeds was a non-existent player in Northern Virginia. Buoyed primarily by their support, Deeds has jumped 12 points in the region of the state where he most Democratic voters reside.    

This is by no means the end of Terry McAuliffe’s campaign. Despite impressive financial reports from both Deeds and Moran, the former DNC chair still has the most money and resources available in the last 7 days. In a race that is tied, you want to be the candidate with the most cash. 

You can see the entire PPP Poll, by clicking here.

**UPDATE**

The Moran camp released a poll of their own that shows their candidate in the lead.  Moran- 29% Deeds- 27% McAuliffe- 26% with a 4.9% margin of error. Details here. 

**UPDATE II**

The Republican Governor’s Association is touting a new poll that shows their candidate Bob McDonnell running strong in Northern Virginia.  In four NoVa counties (Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William), McDonnell is tied or trailing all three Democrats by small margins. Those four counties went to Tim Kaine and Barack Obama by 20 point margins. The poll details can be found here.