Decision Virginia

Mark Warner sent out an email to supporters today asking them to join him with Barack Obama at the Obama rallies in Richmond and Leesburg tomorrow. While Warner has not distanced himself from Obama, he certainly has been running his own campaign, based on his own merits.

That could be that up until, maybe a month ago, Warner was much more popular in Virginia than Obama. While Warner has maintained healthy leads in just about every poll taken, it wasn’t until recently that Obama began to take a lead over Sen. John McCain.

While Warner is a loyal democrat (he did give the keynote address at the DNC), he has always presented an image of bi-partisan populism. That presentation has provided him incredible results in the more conservative leaning parts of the state. Warner has always polled extremely well with voters who identify themselves as conservative or republican.

Contrast that with the role current Gov. Tim Kaine has played. Kaine endorsed Obama almost immediately after he announced that he was running. He serves as his national co-chair and of course was considered right up until the bitter end as a potential candidate for Vice-President. While Kaine has become the chief Obama cheerleader in Virginia, Warner did not officially endorse Obama until after Hillary Clinton decided to bow out.

I am by no means suggesting that Gov. Warner is not 100% behind Sen. Obama. My goal is to illustrate the levels at which that support is displayed. Warner has worked very hard to identify his campaign as his campaign alone. It seems that he did not want to run the risk of people linking him directly to Obama in the event that the tide of the presidential campaign in the Old Dominion turned dramatically against the Illinois Senator. That seems impossible now, but think back to the summer when Sen. Obama was trailing in Virginia in almost every poll.

It appears that now, Warner feels the association and only help him.

That was the lasting impression from tonight’s third and final U.S. Senate Debate from Roanoke, which was the only debate televised live statewide and on NBC12. Former Governor Jim Gilmore found a way to work every single question in the debate back to his opposition to the plan passed today by Congress and Former Governor Mark Warner’s opposition to it.

Gilmore was clearly looking for a way to stake his claim in front of the people of Virginia, in his one and only shot to be seen across the state face to face against the man he is trailing.

Warner for his part stuck to his main talking points and attempted to avoid making too much news. He batted back Gilmore’s barbs on the bailout plan and attempted to explain his support of  the plan which he called “far from perfect.” You can see how our viewers reacted on our liveblog at decisionvirginia.com

The question after all of these debates is: will it have an impact? My guess is little if any and certainly not enough to dramatically change the direction of this race that Mark Warner has dominated.

I’ve included the spin from both campaigns post-debate after the jump. Read the rest of this entry »

I must admit, I thought this was an interesting campaign pitch when it ventured into my mailbox. Jason Alexander aka George Costanza from Seinfeld making a pitch to Virginia voters to donate money to Mark Warner’s campaign. Interestingly the pitch hammers a do-nothing congress, a congress that last I checked was in the hands of Democrats. Here is what he said:

If you thought Seinfeld was a show about nothing, you should check out Congress. I can’t remember such a lack of productivity since the summer of George.

In all seriousness, the gridlock in Washington is extremely worrisome. This crowd has already set an all-time record for filibusters in a single Congress, and they’re still in session! No matter how many good ideas are out there, if we can’t move beyond the same partisan politics, not much is going to happen.

Ryan Nobles - bio | email

There is no doubt the Ana Gamanol story was the dominant political news story in Virginia. It was the most sought after search term that brought people to our web site yesterday. It was perhaps the first time, that a US Senate Race story trumped other political news.

The Times-Dispatch has a nice background piece on the Gamanol Gaffe including some past indiscretions from other campaigns, including Mark Warner’s.  

The story also got national attention.

Two new polls are out on the presidential race in Virginia. Both go to Sen. John McCain, but one within the margin of error. It does boost his lead in the RCP average to a slight lead of 2.3%

McCain maintains the lead despite the relentless push of Barack Obama in Virginia. His running mate Joe Biden brought his wife to the Commonwealth yesterday and will be here again today.

The McCain camp responded to the Biden event in Sterling, with an event of their own featuring two famous wives: Susan Allen and Geri Thompson.

Obama has also dispatched a high profile figure to Richmond on his behalf. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright will speak at the University of Richmond at 3:30pm. The Collegian plans to liveblog the event.

In Richmond news, Mayor Wilder offers up a budget compromise, which allows for plenty of fodder for candidates on the City Council. 

And our Rachael DePompa has a web exclusive. 5 profiles of all 5 candidates for Richmond Mayor. Its something you can only see on decisionvirginia.com.

Ryan Nobles - bio | email

Gov. Jim Gilmore announced today that he is suspending his communications director, Ana Gamonal, for signing up under a fake name to get press releases from the Mark Warner campaign. Gamonal will not be paid during the two week suspension.

The release, said that Gamonal sent a “misleading” email from her home computer to the Warner campaign asking to be placed on their press advisory list. The Gilmore camp also said her actions were unauthorized.

Gamonal is very familiar to those of us who cover this campaign. She is a ubiquitous figure at political functions and relentlessly pitches stories on behalf of her candidate. Her tenacity, even for two weeks could be a blow to the Gilmore campaign.

There is no word on how Gilmore learned of Gamonal’s actions (ie: a complaint from the Warner campaign).

You can see the entire statement after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Nobles - bio | email

As I reflect on the debate this morning, I am overall convinced that there was not anything earth shattering or game changing about what took place. I was however interested in two interesting moments that took place in the debate, courtesy of the Times- Dispatch’s crack political reporter/columnist Jeff Schapiro.

In all manner of full disclosure, I happened to be a big fan of Jeff’s. I love his throwback style and his unabashed approach to reporting the news. This has only been heightened by the T-D’s new use of video commentaries, which Jeff delivers in a witty and memorable style.

Back to the matter at hand. Jeff asked two very tough questions that forced both candidates out of their comfort zone. The first question was posed to Governor Gilmore. Schapiro was looking for a reason why Gilmore’s fundraising had fallen so far behind, despite his connections to wealthy donors during his time as governor and then later on as Republican Party Chair. He gave a list of potential reasons and asked Gilmore to choose from the list- the last choice being the most stinging. Schapiro wondered if the reason donors were not knocking down Gilmore’s door was because people “dislike you personally.”  To see Gilmore’s response, check out our video player.

The second moment came when Schapiro again, posing a question to Gilmore, asked if Governor Warner’s financial success was in part due to “sweetheart” deals from relationships he had developed in the business sector and government. Gilmore at first seemed glad to accept the chance to pounce on Warner, and called his business efforts a “government giveaway”, but then backed away and said, he wasn’t sure how to answer the question. Then came Warner’s response, or lack there of which you can see in the video player.

Interestingly, Schapiro also asked how the millionaire candidates’ portfolios were doing in the wake of the financial crisis. Warner stumbled a bit and said he thought he’d lost 10-15%, Gilmore said he had no idea.

By no means incredibly big pieces of news, but interesting moments in an otherwise dull debate.

We are headed back to Richmond from Northern Virginia after the Warner-Gilmore debate and if you saw our liveblog, you probably already know that there was no major scores or screw-ups. Former Governor Jim Gilmore tried very hard to paint Former Governor Mark Warner as a tax and spend liberal who can’t be trusted and Gov. Warner tried to show Gilmore as a fiscally irresponsible right-winger who doesn’t get along with anyone. Here is a picture from my vantage point at the debate:

The big story is that, I can’t imagine that too many opinions will be shifted one way or another. The focus of our coverage on NBC12 (which will be in our 4, 5:30 and 6pm newscasts) will be how hard Gilmore has worked to get this debate and the upcoming statewide televised debate on October 3rd and if was able to capitalize on the opportunity.

We are on the road this morning heading to McLean, VA for the second debate between US Senate candidates Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore. The debate, which is being put on by the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce, is being held on the Campus of Capital One.

I will be liveblogging the event. It is scheduled to start at 10:30am our coverage on the web will start around 10:15. Log on to decisionvirginia.com for our first person account.

So only a few hours after I trumpeted the news of Barack Obama taking the lead in Virginia, a new poll by Christopher Newport University was released showing John McCain with a commanding 9 point lead in the Commonwealth. This poll was enough to bounce the Real Clear Politics average back into the McCain column.

Hence the reason that we started a blog. This information has changed twice today and had we just relegated it to our evening newscast we would be going back and forth quite a bit. Expect quite a few of these bouncing polls over the next few months.

Here is the new breakdown:

Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

Polling Data

Also in this poll is a breakdown of the Warner- Gilmore race ahead of their big debate tomorrow.
It shows Former Governor Mark Warner with a commanding 54-30 lead over his opponent Former Governor Jim Gilmore.

The results of the Warner-Gilmore race are actually encouraging for the McCain Camp. I am sure they are pleased to see a poll that shows them with a comfortable lead, even with the Republican candidate for US Senate trailing far behind.

Ryan Nobles - bio | email

Sorry for being absent the past few days. My birthday was Monday and I spent the last two days in D.C. watching my beloved Mets fall from first place. Here is a picture of my wife and me right before the start of the 9th inning on Tuesday night. The Mets were trailing the Nationals 1-0 , but New York had the meat of the order coming up. We look so hopeful don’t we? Oh well.

The funny thing is that my wife and I went to see the Mets and Nats at RFK last year around the same time. New York was up 7 games at that time last year. They lost that game and then went on to one of the biggest collapses in baseball history. This time there lead was not nearly as big, and it is now gone. I am starting to wonder if I am a curse.

Anyway.. on to the business at hand. There is quite a bit happening today that we are keeping an eye on.

Michelle Obama in Richmond- The Democratic nominee’s wife, makes her second trip to the Commonwealth and first to Richmond. She is holding a roundtable discussion on Women and the Economy. My colleague Rob Richardson is at the event and will have more tonight during our early evening newscasts. She will head to Charlottesville this afternoon.

Voter Registration- Today during the Call 12 segment of our newscast we will have volunteers from the State Board of Elections taking calls from our viewers about the upcoming election. Their goal is to help people register to vote. There is a concern that an overwhelming response to the election on November 4th could cause problems. (Chesterfield County already experienced some issues during the Primary) The State BOE wants to make sure that every voter understands what they need to have in place in order to be eligible to vote and that they know where to go and how the process works. We normally don’t begin our Call 12 segments until the 5pm hour, but we are expecting a big response, so your opportunity to call will begin during First at Four.

US Senate Debate- We are heading up to Fairfax tomorrow to cover the US Senate Debate between Jim Gilmore and Mark Warner. I also plan to liveblog the event. The two have recently gone on the attack, with Gilmore using a TV ad accusing Warner of being a liar and Warner then putting up a TV ad defending himself.  The Fairfax Chamber of Commerce, who is sponsoring the debate, has opened up the media pool to allow for more coverage, considering that this may be the last time the two square off face to face.

**UPDATE**

I admittedly was out of the loop on this one, The Warner and Gilmore camps have agreed to a debate on October 7th in Roanoke. The location has not been determined, but it will be produced by our affiliate in Roanoke, WSLS. Television stations across the state have been invited to broadcast this debate.

**UPDATE ENDS**

Bob Barr Making Noise- We told you last week about Libertarian Candidate Bob Barr’s role in the race for President, which up until now has been limited at best. Today he announced that he has filed a lawsuit to keep John McCain and Barack Obama off the ballot for President in Texas. If he were successful, it would be a much bigger blow to the Republicans than Democrats. Texas is reliably red and John McCain’s chances of winning the election without Texas’ 34 electoral votes, would be slim to none. See what Barr is up to after the jump.

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