Decision Virginia

It is early, but a new poll just released gives all three Democratic candidates for Governor reason to stay in the fight. The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling. Of the close to 1000 self-indentified democratic voters the poll questioned, 18% picked Terry McAuliffe and another 18% said Brian Moran. Creigh Deeds was not far behind with 11%. With support for not one of the three candidates even breaking the 20% threshold there is an ocean of voters (53%) who have yet to make up their mind.  

What the poll seems to indicate the most is that the race for governor is not on the minds of many voters. A large number of respondents didn’t have an opinion of any of the candidates. McAuliffe seemed to be the most well known, but still 47% said they weren’t sure if they liked him or not. 57% had no opinion of Moran and 67% did not know enough about Deeds. 

Perhaps the most telling part of the poll are the questions they asked that had nothing to do about the candidates themselves, but about the race for Governor and the issues people felt were important. Overwhelmingly voters said that the economy should be the top concern for the next Governor. In fact while 71% said the economy and jobs were their number one issue, nothing else even broke the 10% mark. Not taxes, not education, not even the war in iraq. 

The full results of the poll can be found here.

Ryan Nobles - bio | email

It is a trend that started a few weeks ago and is now turned into an outright advantage for Barack Obama. The democratic nominee for president who, at one point was considered a long shot to win Virginia, should now be considered the favorite. By no means am I predicting that he will win the commonwealth, it is still a battleground state. But this latest group of polls clearly show that he has taken a lead outside the margin of error. Take a look at the latest Real Clear Politics average:

Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

A new group of polls are out in Virginia and they continue to be good news for Barack Obama. The latest comes from Public Policy Polling group, which is a democratic leaning organization. It shows Obama with an 8 point lead. This just after a FOX News/Rasmussen Poll that showed Obama leading John McCain by 2 points. It brings the overall Real Clear Politics average to a clear 5.1% lead for Obama. His largest lead ever in Virginia under this average. 

Here is the breakdown:
Virginia: McCain vs. Obama
(Starting October 11 partisan affiliated polls will not be added to the RCP Poll Averages.)

It seems that the Commonwealth is following the trend of the rest of the nation and leaning their support to Barack Obama. A new set of polls out are positive for Obama, but show that their is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to who the Old Dominion will vote for come election day. Here is the latest breakdown from Real Clear Politics:

Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

Polling Data

See All Virginia: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

As you can see the RCP average is just over 2% in Obama’s favor. This could have been much worse for the Republicans, if not for a new Mason-Dixon poll released today that showed McCain leading by 3 points. A CNN/Time poll shows Obama with a 9 point lead and the Insider Advantage/Poll Position poll has him up by 3. It is clear that the perception of the economic conditions of the country have had a similar impact on McCain in Virginia as they have in other parts of the state.

This again shows how important it is for Sarah Palin to rally the Republican base once again in her debate tonight with Joe Biden.

Ryan Nobles - bio | email

In the wake of debate 1, we have the democratic nominees in the commonwealth, a new poll that is painting Virginia blue, and very positive reactions to our liveblog which you were able to participate in. 

First looking forward, in another example of just how important the Democrats regard Virginia, Barack Obama and Joe Biden will be here today. They will hold a rally in Fredericksburg the day after the first debate. You may recall that Obama made Virginia his first stop after Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for president. 

And there is no doubt the Democrats are spending more time here and it appears to be paying off.  A new poll, this one out by Rasmussen, gives Barack Obama the lead in the commonwealth. They have Obama up 50%-45% and that is enough to bump him up in the RCP Average to a lead of 1.8%. Interestingly if you have paid any attention to the RCP electoral college map in the last three weeks, you probably noticed that if the map has changed it has been because the numbers in Virginia keep going back and forth. 

Back to last night’s debate, the overall reaction was that there was no clear winner. Both candidates seemed to overcome some of the criticisms of their earlier debate styles. Some viewed the exchange as boring. It seems unlikely that it will provide any seismic shift in the poll numbers, which could mean the upcoming VP debate is going to be even more important. 

And we were glad to provide instant, local reaction from people right here in Central Virginia in our liveblog. We had a very lively exchange and help from some terrific student reporters from Manchester High School. You can take a look back at what every one said on decisionvirginia.com.

We don’t have a 6pm newscast tonight, so I will see you later at 11pm, and I’ll update you with any new political information right here.

Ryan Nobles - bio | email

Good Morning! We are waiting to see what will happen with the first presidential debate. John McCain and Barack Obama are currently in a staring contest, waiting to see who will blink first. If the debate does happen, we will have special coverage on NBC12 and DecisionVirgina.com, stay tuned to find out what we have planned.

In other news of the day:

We told you yesterday about a poll commissioned by NBC for the Today’s Show visit to Virginia which showed John McCain with a very small lead. I took a look inside the poll at some of the breakdowns to see if there was anything relevant to our area and found this- numbers that show what voters are saying in our viewing area:

QUESTION: If the 2008 presidential election were held today, would you vote for: (ORDER ROTATED) 

 - the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama & Joe Biden 

 – the Republican ticket of John McCain & Sarah Palin 

                    OBAMA    MCCAIN    OTHER  UNDECIDED   

STATE            44%          47%           1%           8% 

REGION                            OBAMA    MCCAIN    OTHER  UNDECIDED   

Northern Virginia                 55%             37%       1%           7%          

Shenandoah/Piedmont         36%             55%        -            9%          

Richmond Metro               39%            52%       1%          8%          

Hampton Roads                   44%             48%       1%           7%          

Lynchburg/Southside           41%             49%       1%           9%          

Roanoke/Southwest             36%             54%       1%           9%      

As it stands right now, the Richmond area is decidedly in the McCain column. While that is helpful for the Republicans, there are other parts of the poll that must be alarming. The Hampton Roads area, which is filled with military personnel and their families, shows only a four point lead for McCain. That shows that Barack Obama has made key gains in a region crucial to his chances of taking the commonwealth. You can see the entire breakdown of the poll here.

Ryan Nobles – bio | email

The Today Show came to town today and the broke a little news while they were here. The show broadcast live from Colonial Williamsburg this morning and while there they released a new poll about the state of the race in Virginia. Their poll, commissioned by Mason-Dixon, shows Senator John McCain with a narrow three point lead, well within the margin of error. You can see the video from this morning’s show right here.

During the visit, Luke Russert made a bit of a verbal gaffe, which he later issued a statement of apology for.

NBC12 was well represented in Williamsburg. Our Andrew Freiden was their broadcasting live and our anchor team shot promos with Matt Lauer. Here is Aaron Gilchrist with Lauer. Aaron said there were quite a few people from Richmond who made the trip for the broadcast.

I have also posted the entire uncut interview with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. You can see it in our Decision Virginia video player.

So only a few hours after I trumpeted the news of Barack Obama taking the lead in Virginia, a new poll by Christopher Newport University was released showing John McCain with a commanding 9 point lead in the Commonwealth. This poll was enough to bounce the Real Clear Politics average back into the McCain column.

Hence the reason that we started a blog. This information has changed twice today and had we just relegated it to our evening newscast we would be going back and forth quite a bit. Expect quite a few of these bouncing polls over the next few months.

Here is the new breakdown:

Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

Polling Data

Also in this poll is a breakdown of the Warner- Gilmore race ahead of their big debate tomorrow.
It shows Former Governor Mark Warner with a commanding 54-30 lead over his opponent Former Governor Jim Gilmore.

The results of the Warner-Gilmore race are actually encouraging for the McCain Camp. I am sure they are pleased to see a poll that shows them with a comfortable lead, even with the Republican candidate for US Senate trailing far behind.

Just a few days after my post about a John McCain lead in Virginia, The Real Clear Politics average now has the pendulum swinging back in Barack Obama’s favor. The Democrat has now taken a very small lead in their survey of recent polls.  Here is the breakdown:

Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

Polling Data

See All Virginia: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

The lead is small and well within the statiscal margin of error, but it has to be worrisome for the McCain camp, who needs Virginia to win.

Ryan Nobles - bio | email

It has been a while since I have taken a close look at what the polls are saying about the race for the White House in Virginia. I thought now, during this period of calm following conventions and big rallies for both sides, would be a good time to see where the Commonwealth is positioned.

Real Clear Politics shows a very small 2.6 point lead in Virginia for Senator McCain. Real Clear Politics uses an average of reputable polls to come up with their spread. The poll average comes from three different polling outfits from September 5th- September 9th. All three show McCain with a lead, and those taken later show his lead increasing. Here is the breakdown:

Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

Polling Data

See All Virginia: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

There is good news and bad news for both camps in this data.

First for Obama: This is good news because Democrats have come very close to winning the White House in the last two election cycles, without coming close to winning Virginia. The fact that Obama is within striking distance this close to election day is an enormous plus.  It also is positive because it shows that it is worth it for him to continue to devote resources to the fight here, after already investing a considerable amount. On the other side, the trend for camp Obama is not headed in the right direction. He has come very close to leading in multiple polls, but now it seems like those gains are receding. They could easily go the other way again, but it is often tough to reverse a trend twice.

Now for McCain: The good news is that he is still ahead and has yet to devote the time or money that Obama has. You may recall a post I put out a few days ago about the Obama camp emphasising the fact that the candidate has been to Virginia five times already since clinching the nomination. (He has also sent his wife and his running mate). McCain has had one rally and has spent far less on TV advertising and is still ahead. He obviously has benefited from his national momentum, but the fact that he has a lead here is still agains the odds. But on the negative side, the fact that McCain even has to fight for Virginia is a huge distraction. This state is normally a layup for the Republican nominee. While McCain has vowed to fight in Virginia, he would much rather be spending his time and money in states where he could steal Democratic electoral votes like New Hampshire or Pennsylvania. As much as Obama would love to win Virginia, he can win the election without it. There is no way McCain can win it all without winning here.

As Tim Kaine told me during the Democratic National Convention, if we learn that Virginia has gone to Obama the night of the election, we know the Democrats will win.