DV Archive

Decision Virginia Archive 8/08- 7/12

The Reason We Started a Blog

with 2 comments

So only a few hours after I trumpeted the news of Barack Obama taking the lead in Virginia, a new poll by Christopher Newport University was released showing John McCain with a commanding 9 point lead in the Commonwealth. This poll was enough to bounce the Real Clear Politics average back into the McCain column.

Hence the reason that we started a blog. This information has changed twice today and had we just relegated it to our evening newscast we would be going back and forth quite a bit. Expect quite a few of these bouncing polls over the next few months.

Here is the new breakdown:

Virginia: McCain vs. Obama

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 09/07 – 09/14 47.6 46.2 McCain +1.4
PPP (D) 09/13 – 09/14 1090 LV 46 48 Obama +2
CNU Virginia Poll 09/10 – 09/14 500 RV 48 39 McCain +9
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 – 09/14 500 LV 48 48 Tie
SurveyUSA 09/12 – 09/14 732 LV 46 50 Obama +4
CNN/Time 09/07 – 09/09 920 RV 50 46 McCain +4

Also in this poll is a breakdown of the Warner- Gilmore race ahead of their big debate tomorrow.
It shows Former Governor Mark Warner with a commanding 54-30 lead over his opponent Former Governor Jim Gilmore.

The results of the Warner-Gilmore race are actually encouraging for the McCain Camp. I am sure they are pleased to see a poll that shows them with a comfortable lead, even with the Republican candidate for US Senate trailing far behind.

Written by Ryan Nobles

September 17, 2008 at 8:54 pm

2 Responses

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  1. Nice writing style. I look forward to reading more in the future.

    Jamie Holts

    September 17, 2008 at 9:00 pm

  2. It is preposterous to me that you would even put the CNU Virginia poll on your round up. Take a look at the poll methodology and I think you’ll find that it grossly misrepresents a number of realities, particularly the size of the African American and youth constituency in Virginia.

    88% of respondents were over the age of 40, and the poll estimates a black turnout of 9.8%. In 2004 black turnout in Virginia was over 20%. I am disappointed that CNU would even put their name on such a poll, and equally disappointed that this website would represent it as reputable.

    Anon

    September 18, 2008 at 3:17 am


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