Latest VA Polls Show Growing Obama Lead
It is a trend that started a few weeks ago and is now turned into an outright advantage for Barack Obama. The democratic nominee for president who, at one point was considered a long shot to win Virginia, should now be considered the favorite. By no means am I predicting that he will win the commonwealth, it is still a battleground state. But this latest group of polls clearly show that he has taken a lead outside the margin of error. Take a look at the latest Real Clear Politics average:
Virginia: McCain vs. Obama
|Poll||Date||Sample||Obama (D)||McCain (R)||Spread|
|RCP Average||10/03 – 10/14||—||51.6||43.0||Obama +8.6|
|CNN/Time||10/11 – 10/14||698 LV||53||43||Obama +10|
|FOX News/Rasmussen||10/12 – 10/12||1000 LV||50||47||Obama +3|
|PPP (D)||10/06 – 10/07||917 LV||51||43||Obama +8|
|SurveyUSA||10/04 – 10/05||666 LV||53||43||Obama +10|
|Suffolk||10/03 – 10/05||600 LV||51||39||Obama +12|
The average now shows a lead of almost 9 points by Obama, by any reasonable assesment that is a clear advantage for the Senator from Illinois. You can also see how the last 5 polls have all gone in favor of the democrats.
The one aspect of this information that is worth pointing out is that only one of these polls was taken around the time of the McCain/Palin visit to Virginia. The two visits in Virginia Beach and here in Richmond brought out big crowds and that generally can give the candidates a bump in the polls. It also does not take into account last night’s debate.
There is still about 20 days left to go, but at this point the Democrats have to be happy with where they are sitting.