DV Archive

Decision Virginia Archive 8/08- 7/12

With one week to go, new poll has the Democratic race virtually tied

with 2 comments

There will be no forgone conclusions come next Tuesday night. A new poll just released by Public Policy Polling has the three candidates for the Democratic nomination all within the margin of error in what now appears to be a tight race.

Here is the breakdown:

Creigh Deeds: 27%

Terry McAuliffe: 24%

Brian Moran: 22%

The poll marks an enormous jump for Creigh Deeds, who in PPP’s polling has gained a remarkable 13 points over the last few surveys. It also represents a slide for Terry McAuliffe who just a couple of weeks ago was the clear leader with 30% of the vote. The Macker has dropped 6 points. Brian Moran, meantime has held on to support in the low 20’s, just where he his campaign tells me he expected to be, 7 days before the polls open.

This poll has to make the Washington Post editorial board smile as well. Prior to their endorsement, Deeds was a non-existent player in Northern Virginia. Buoyed primarily by their support, Deeds has jumped 12 points in the region of the state where he most Democratic voters reside.    

This is by no means the end of Terry McAuliffe’s campaign. Despite impressive financial reports from both Deeds and Moran, the former DNC chair still has the most money and resources available in the last 7 days. In a race that is tied, you want to be the candidate with the most cash. 

You can see the entire PPP Poll, by clicking here.

**UPDATE**

The Moran camp released a poll of their own that shows their candidate in the lead.  Moran- 29% Deeds- 27% McAuliffe- 26% with a 4.9% margin of error. Details here

**UPDATE II**

The Republican Governor’s Association is touting a new poll that shows their candidate Bob McDonnell running strong in Northern Virginia.  In four NoVa counties (Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William), McDonnell is tied or trailing all three Democrats by small margins. Those four counties went to Tim Kaine and Barack Obama by 20 point margins. The poll details can be found here.

Written by Ryan Nobles

June 2, 2009 at 11:56 am

2 Responses

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  1. This is lazy journalism; you didn’t really examine the poll data. This appears to be a poorly designed automated poll. There are 6 real questions in the poll; the first five are about the governor’s race, the sixth is about the lieutenant governor. (The rest are demographic data-gathering.) Note that in all five of the gubernatorial questions, “Press 1” was selected. (Deeds was option 1). I submit that people pressed the first option to get through the automated polling and I suspect that many abandoned the call before it completed.

    JamesW

    June 3, 2009 at 8:29 am

  2. […] that began around the time Creigh Deeds earned the endorsement of the Washington Post. In that time polls have shown Deeds steadily gaining ground while McAuliffe has slowly tracked back. The third candidate in the […]


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