Primary day in Virginia

Greetings from beautiful Orange, VA!

Decision Virginia is coming to you this morning from James Madison’s Montpelier. My family and I are guests of the Center for the Constitution, where I am helping produce a series of educational videos on the Constitution. While I am moderating the panel discussions on the Bill of Rights, which will later be part of an online video course through the Close Up Foundation, Karey and the kids are exploring the incredibly beautiful grounds. Including the gardens which are right behind President Madison’s home.

Montpelier is a terrific, perhaps hidden secret in the Commonwealth. It is an easy jaunt from Richmond and there is quite a bit for the kids to do. Our kids are little and my wife has been able to find plenty of places for them to run around and have fun. Their favorite part has to be when the fireflies seem to erupt from the lawn in a fantastic show each evening. Plus the bugs are easy to catch.. even for my 1 and half year old. (Don’t worry we let them all go. No fireflies were hurt in the making of this blog post.)

Unfortunately our little retreat from reality must come to an end this afternoon as we shuffle back down I-64 so I can be home in time to cover today’s Virginia Senate/Congressional Primary. It is a primary that has been largely ignored by the general public, but features two of Virginia’s most prominent politicians, former senator and governor George Allen and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.

I have reported a bit on both races. Check out my story on Cantor’s challenge from Tea Party activists Floyd Bayne, and my story about George Allen’s ability to wade through a volitale electorate.

Despite the incredibly important impact this primary could have on the Virginia political scene, there is little evidence that many people will participate. Virgina hasn’t had a Senate primary in recent memory and the last few congressional primaries in other districts have offered minimal interest from the voting public. The expected low turnout would appear to be a to the advantage of the Cantor and Allen, who have built-in name recognition and get out the vote mechanisms that would be successful in a little watched primary. Astute political observer Beau Cribbs points out that voter turnout in the 2006 Virginia Democratic Primary was only 3.45%.

However their opponents would argue that low turnout may be to their advantage, because while their supporters may be a smaller portion of the electorate, are more passionate and willing to brave a rainy day to get out to the polls.

Regardless, Cantor and Allen have not taken anything for granted. Both conducted a voting blitz in the closing days of the primary and have been filling up mailboxes and the emails of their identified supporters. While a win is a win, not winning by a large margin could be perceived by their detractors as a sign of vulnerability heading into November.

Cantor and Allen will be together to celebrate the election results in downtown Richmond tonight.

If you are planning to vote today, the State Board of Elections has put out this handy guide with information on what you need to know to make sure your vote counts.

The questions right now is turnout. How many people will pay attention to today’s vote? I am going to put the voter turnout over/under at 9%. Will it be better than that? (My guess is a little over statewide, a little less in Cantor’s district).

Give me your thoughts in the comments or on my facebook page or tweet me your guess.

We will have complete coverage of the returns tonight on NBC12.

Cantor faces primary challenge

It may be nothing more than a speed bump on his way to 7th term in Congress and the further consolidation of his power as the House Majority Leader in Washington, D.C. Regardless for the first time in his career, Rep. Eric Cantor has a primary challenge.

It isn’t a serious challenge. His opponent, Floyd Bayne, has run against him before. He picked up 6% of the vote as an independent, essentially Tea Party candidate in 2010. Bayne doesn’t have much money and there is no polling data to suggest that he could pull off the impossible on June 12th. But on that day, in an election that could see less 5% of registered voters showing up, Bayne hopes anything is possible.

Here is my story on Cantor’s primary challenge from NBC12:

It may seem early, but a group of candidates are in a sprint to Election Day. It’s not the November election, but the June primary that will decide who is on the ballot. It usually brings out a very low turnout, but this year, there are some big names on the ballot including one of the most powerful politicians in America.

In two weeks House Majority Leader Eric Cantor will be on the ballot hoping to secure his party’s nomination, in a GOP primary.

“I think everyone should be taking elections seriously,” said Cantor during a visit to the Libbie Market in Richmond on Tuesday.  “This is our God given gift as citizens of America.”

Cantor doesn’t seem worried about June 12th or Floyd Bayne who hopes to de-rail his march to another term.

The difference in their two campaigns is stark. Cantor, the second most powerful member of the House of Representatives brought national TV crews to Richmond. Tuesday evening, Bayne spoke to a small group of Tea Party activists in Henrico.

“We’ve gone to every meeting, Tea Party, Republican Party that will have me, and you just gotta get people out to vote,” Bayne said.

Bayne isn’t drawing big crowds but he might not need them. In 2008, less than 5% of registered voters came to the polls in congressional primaries.

“You just get out there and knock on doors and get boots on the ground,” Bayne said.

Cantor may not be worried, but he isn’t ignoring Bayne. He sent his supporters a letter reminding them to vote on the 12th and signs with a similar reminder have popped up around Richmond.

read and see the story on NBC12.com

Bayne talked to us extensively about his primary challenge. Extended clips from the interview are below:

Rep. Cantor also talked about his work to help small business and his view of the primary. That interview can be found below:

 

Cantor rejects notion that he is hiding from his opposition

Election 2010 appears to be one of the most important of Rep. Eric Cantor‘s political career.  The local Congressman has been one of the lead architects in the GOP resurgence that is on track to retake the House of Representatives and  by extension make Cantor the 2nd most powerful member of Congress.

But while Cantor has been rallying Republican troops around the country, his own re-election has inflicted a bit of damage on his local persona.

There is a perception that the Congressman hasn’t not been very accessible during his campaign.  Cantor’s opponents Democrat Rick Waugh and Tea Party candidate Floyd Bayne have complained about Cantor’s unwillingness to stand with them and debate the issues. Both have used unconventional means to get the Congressman’s attention.  Waugh has sent a man dressed in a chicken suit to interrupt Cantor events. Bayne confronted Cantor at a recent book signing with a video camera in tow.   Of course, all of these incidents get captured on YouTube.

But while those confrontations did not amount too much, one incident attracted national news. A supporter of Waugh, Jon Taylor attempted to attend an event advertised by the Cantor campaign as “open to the public”.  Depending on which perspective you read, Taylor was either minding his own business or causing a disturbance.  Regardless he was asked to leave and refused and was eventually arrested. His arrest, which he resisted, was caught on camera by his son and has now received over 50 thousand views on YouTube.

The series of conflicts at Cantor events led well-known Bacon’s Rebellion blogger and respected journalist Peter Galuszka to say that Republican “has a tendency to surround himself with layers of defense.”  Galuzka’s column was cross-posted on the Washington Post’s  “All Opinions Are Local” page.

Monday on NBC12 First at 4, Cantor flatly rejected that claim.

“We’ve had,  a series of events where there have been people of all political persuasions and ideologies that have come,” said Cantor  “(It’s) about trying to make sure the voters understand where I am, where my voting record is.”

And when I pressed him about the lack of access and specifically about the incident in Louisa, Cantor claimed that was an isolated occurence and that Democrats and Independents are always welcome at his events.

“I think what had happened there was there was an individual intent on violating the law, and that’s why the law enforcement took the action they did,” Cantor said.  “It wasn’t anything on the part of our campaign, but, you know, again, we’re always open for folks who want to come and, you know, participate in the discussion.”

Cantor went on to say, that his role in the national debate make him a known quantity.  If a voter wanted to know where he stands on an issue, its not hard to find out.

“I’ve been in the middle of the national debate leading the opposition to the  Obama agenda, whether it’s the Healthcare bill or whether it’s Cap and Trade bill, the Card Check Measure,” said Cantor.  “I think my positions are fairly well known and we’re continuing, though, to talk to people about the problems they face and how we can find a better way.”

You can see the complete interview with Rep. Cantor below. The full transcript is available on NBC12.com.

Bayne represents Cantor’s problem with the Tea Party

If he were to pull it off, it would be an upset of epic proportions. And despite all conventional wisdom, Independent candidate Floyd Bayne believes he can do make it happen.

He truly believes he can beat Eric Cantor.

“My goal is to win,” said Bayne in an interview on NBC12 First at 4.

While many Tea Pary candidates, like Bayne have run to prove a point, or to get a platform to spread their message, Bayne believes that there is a path to his victory. Despite being dramatically underfunded he is going into November with suprising confidence.

“65% of the voters in this district are conservative/Republican. It’s been gerrymandered to be that way,” said Bayne. “So then it comes down to do you want a Republican or do you want a conservative? And Mr. Cantor’s not a conservative.”

While Cantor and Tea Party people like Bayne share a common disdain for the Obama administration, the powerful incumbent is not beloved by the insurgent movement. Even though Cantor is poised to become one of the most powerful people in the Federal Government, he doesn’t enjoy rock star support among Tea Party activists like Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.  Cantor was noticeably absent at the Virginia Tea Party Convention, an event that featured Cuccinelli, Governor Bob McDonnell and former Senator George Allen.

 Floyd Bayne aims to make sure that message is sent and even if he doesn’t win, he is hoping that his candidacy will put establishment Republicans like Cantor on notice.

“They’re not listening, they’re more interested in what the party hierarchy wants than they are in what the people want,”  he said.  “They’re more interested in advancing their own personal careers than they are in adhering to the constitution.”

Eric Cantor will appear on NBC12 First at 4 on Monday November 1st.

Our entire interview with Floyd Bayne can be seen below. The transcript can be found at NBC12.com.

Rick Waugh won’t commit on Pelosi as Speaker

Rick Waugh is the Democratic nominee facing one of the most powerful people in Congress in this fall’s election. If Waugh is able to topple Eric Cantor, it would mean that his party was able to hold on to the House of Representatives. Given that scenario, Waugh could not say if he would vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.

“I’ve never met Nancy Pelosi so I can’t answer that question,” said Waugh during an interview on NBC12 First at 4.

It’s not a surprise that Waugh didn’t feel comfortable pledging his support to Pelosi. Not only is her approval rating poor, especially in Republican leaning districts, but the Speaker has not been inclined to offer the Waugh campaign much support.  Waugh has not received a cent from Democratic leaders in Washington. The vast majority of his $87 thousand in campaign donations have come from individual contributors.  A tough fight to wage when your opponent is the 2nd most powerful Republican in the House and has taken in more than $5 million in campaign contributions.  (As of the latest filing, Waugh has a little more than $2 thousand left to spend, Cantor more than $1 million)

But according to Waugh, the way campaigns are financed is part of the problem. His signs all over the district cry “end corporate welfare”. The candidate believes donations from corporations are a major part of the culture of corruption in Washington.

“They pander the votes towards those corporations,”  said Waugh.  ” I think what we need to do is we need to end the corporate influence on politicians as one of the reasons why we need campaign finance reform.”

Based on his answers it doesn’t appear that Waugh would’ve strayed much from the Democratic base were he already in Congress. He made the case for the federal mandate to buy health insurance, by comparing it to state law that requires car owners to have insurance while on the road. He also believes, despite his desire to rid the corporate influence in Washington, that the intent of the stimulus plan was the right one.

“I think we do need to invest in America,” said Waugh. “We need to make sure we’re doing all we can to provide incentives to create jobs.”

You can see the complete interview with Rick Waugh below. The transcript from our discussion can be found on NBC12.com.

Waugh’s two opponents in the 7th district will appear on First at 4 as well. Independent Floyd Bayne will appear on Oct. 21st. Republican Eric Cantor on November 1st.

NBC12 First at 4 Congressional Candidate interviews (UPDATED)

By: Ryan Nobles – bio | email

Starting this Wednesday, NBC12 First at 4 will be hosting candidates running for Congress in each district in the Richmond viewing area.  The interviews will include candidates from Virginia’s 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th & 7th districts.

Some of these races, such as the 5th district contest, are some of the biggest in the country and could play a major role in deciding who controls Congress for the next two years.  Others, such as the 1st district,  have captured national media attention because events outside of the candidate’s control.  Finally, others like the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th are considered long shot contests with entrenched incumbents.

Regardless, we will give each candidate a fair shake. If you haven’t made up your mind yet we hope this informative segment will help you make your decision.

Here is the schedule that we have confirmed so far:  (more to be added as time goes on)

Wednesday Oct. 13^th– Krystal Ball (D-1)

Thursday Oct. 14^th– Dr. Wynne Legrow (D-4) 

Monday Oct. 18^th– Rick Waugh (D-7)

Tuesday Oct. 19th- Randy Forbes (R-4) *

Wednesday Oct. 20^th– Tom Perriello (D-5)*

Thursday Oct. 21^st– Floyd Bayne (I-7)

Friday Oct. 22nd- Bobby Scott (D-3)*

Monday Oct. 25th- Chuck Smith (R-3)

Tuesday Oct. 26th- Rob Wittman (R-1)*

Wednesday Oct. 27th-Robert Hurt (R-5) (tentative)

Thursday Oct. 28th- Jeffrey Clark (I-5)

Monday Nov. 1^st– Eric Cantor (R-7)*

*Denotes incumbent

Ms. Ball kicks off our candidate interviews on Wednesday. The revelation of suggestive photos of Ball have become a national media sensation. She granted the first interview on the subject to NBC12.  The YouTube clip of the interview is approaching 150,000 views.  Ball has or will appear on all three cable news networks, was mentioned on the Rush Limbaugh show, and authored an editorial on the subject on the Huffington Post.

We’ll follow up on our initial story in this first of a series of candidate interviews Wednesday on NBC12 First at 4.